Biggest difference is that I estimate the risk of this kind of global catastrophe before development of AGI and before 2100 to be much lower—not sure exactly what but 10% seems like the right ballpark. But this did cause me to update towards having more probability on >2100.
Biggest difference is that I estimate the risk of this kind of global catastrophe before development of AGI and before 2100 to be much lower—not sure exactly what but 10% seems like the right ballpark. But this did cause me to update towards having more probability on >2100.