My distribution
My biggest differences with Rohin’s prior distribution are:
1. I think that it’s much more likely than he does that AGI researchers already agree with safety concerns
2. I think it’s considerably more likely than he does that the majority of AGI researchers will never agree with safety concerns
These differences are explained more on my distribution and in my other comments.
The next step that I think would help the most to make my distribution better would be to do more research.
My distribution
My biggest differences with Rohin’s prior distribution are:
1. I think that it’s much more likely than he does that AGI researchers already agree with safety concerns
2. I think it’s considerably more likely than he does that the majority of AGI researchers will never agree with safety concerns
These differences are explained more on my distribution and in my other comments.
The next step that I think would help the most to make my distribution better would be to do more research.