I may have generalized from a few instances that I’ve seen, of the variety of “You shouldn’t make long term plans because it’s an effort in futility (reality gets in the way)
OTOH, when I enter in planning into the search bar, the very first article I get is this one: http://lesswrong.com/lw/jg/planning_fallacy/ - with the snippet “the planning fallacy is that people think they can plan”
I think that betrays a misunderstanding of the planning fallacy. The planning fallacy is the inability of humans to instinctively think and account for risks in such a way as to make accurate schedules for plans. E.g. we seem to assume things will go as planned, we do not stop to think about what could go wrong and when and what responses would be appropriate, we tend to underestimate how much work is required, and overestimate how much we will be able to contribute, etc.
It’s not that planning is a fallacy, it’s that we have built-in fallacies (biases) related to how we naturally go about planning.
I may have generalized from a few instances that I’ve seen, of the variety of “You shouldn’t make long term plans because it’s an effort in futility (reality gets in the way)
OTOH, when I enter in planning into the search bar, the very first article I get is this one: http://lesswrong.com/lw/jg/planning_fallacy/ - with the snippet “the planning fallacy is that people think they can plan”
I think that betrays a misunderstanding of the planning fallacy. The planning fallacy is the inability of humans to instinctively think and account for risks in such a way as to make accurate schedules for plans. E.g. we seem to assume things will go as planned, we do not stop to think about what could go wrong and when and what responses would be appropriate, we tend to underestimate how much work is required, and overestimate how much we will be able to contribute, etc.
It’s not that planning is a fallacy, it’s that we have built-in fallacies (biases) related to how we naturally go about planning.