The unpopular answer is that Dath Ilan is a fantasy setting. It treats economics as central, when economics is really downstream of power. Your first question implies you understand that whatever “econoliteracy” is, it isn’t a stable equilibrium. Your second question notices that governments are powerful enough to stop these experiments which are a threat to their power.
My background assumption is that any attempt at building prediction markets would either:
a) …have little effect because it becomes another mechanism for actual power to manipulate procedural outcomes, most likely through selective subsidies, manipulation of the monetary supply, or education or social pressure resulting in all right minded people voting the way power centers want (ie, how things work today).
c) …devolves into Jim Bell’s Assassination Markets because there actually isn’t a way for power elites to prevent some markets from being made (and we should expect any general way to prevent some markets being made to go back to (a)).
Mu.
The unpopular answer is that Dath Ilan is a fantasy setting. It treats economics as central, when economics is really downstream of power. Your first question implies you understand that whatever “econoliteracy” is, it isn’t a stable equilibrium. Your second question notices that governments are powerful enough to stop these experiments which are a threat to their power.
My background assumption is that any attempt at building prediction markets would either:
a) …have little effect because it becomes another mechanism for actual power to manipulate procedural outcomes, most likely through selective subsidies, manipulation of the monetary supply, or education or social pressure resulting in all right minded people voting the way power centers want (ie, how things work today).
b) …be used as a coordination points for a Point Deer Call Horse style coup (see also: how publicly betting in cockfights can be more about signaling alliances, not predictions).
c) …devolves into Jim Bell’s Assassination Markets because there actually isn’t a way for power elites to prevent some markets from being made (and we should expect any general way to prevent some markets being made to go back to (a)).