Oh, for sure the first generation of prediction markets won’t be enough. However, market forces will automatically take care of iteratively improving prediction market platforms for us (where “us” = “people concerned about x-risk”), and all “we” need to do is push to make them legal.
As long as entrepreneurs are allowed to make money by building better prediction markets (+ adjacent services), they will.
Oh, for sure the first generation of prediction markets won’t be enough. However, market forces will automatically take care of iteratively improving prediction market platforms for us (where “us” = “people concerned about x-risk”), and all “we” need to do is push to make them legal.
As long as entrepreneurs are allowed to make money by building better prediction markets (+ adjacent services), they will.