I accept that having some remaining probability mass for “unknown unknowns” is reasonable. And you can certainly talk about ideas that didn’t work out even though they had advantages and existed 60 years ago. Jetpacks, that sort of thing.
But if you do more than a cursory analysis you will see the gain from a jetpack is you save a bit of time at the risk of your life, absurd fuel consumption, high cost, and deafening noise to your neighbors. Gain isn’t worth it.
The potential gain of better AI unlocks most of the resources of the solar system (via automated machinery that can manufacture more automated machinery) and makes world conquest feasible. It’s literally a “get the technology or lose” situation. All it takes is a belief that another power is close to having AI able to operate self replicating machinery and you either invest in the same tech or lose your entire country. Sort of how right now Google believes either they release a counter to BingGPT or lose their company.
So yeah I don’t see a justification for even 10 percent doubt.
I accept that having some remaining probability mass for “unknown unknowns” is reasonable. And you can certainly talk about ideas that didn’t work out even though they had advantages and existed 60 years ago. Jetpacks, that sort of thing.
But if you do more than a cursory analysis you will see the gain from a jetpack is you save a bit of time at the risk of your life, absurd fuel consumption, high cost, and deafening noise to your neighbors. Gain isn’t worth it.
The potential gain of better AI unlocks most of the resources of the solar system (via automated machinery that can manufacture more automated machinery) and makes world conquest feasible. It’s literally a “get the technology or lose” situation. All it takes is a belief that another power is close to having AI able to operate self replicating machinery and you either invest in the same tech or lose your entire country. Sort of how right now Google believes either they release a counter to BingGPT or lose their company.
So yeah I don’t see a justification for even 10 percent doubt.