If Keepers utilise their secret information to bet well then that is a way for the secrets to leak out. So flaunting their ability and confidentiality are in conflict there. I wouldn’t put it past for Keepers to be able to model “What would I think if I did not posses my secret informations” to a very fine detail level, but then that judgement is not the full blown judgement or concern that the person can do.
But this prediction market is exactly the one case where, if the Keepers are concerned about AGI existential risk, signalling to the market not to do this thing is much much more important than preserving the secret. Preventing this thing is what you’re preserving the secret for; if Civilization starts advancing computing too quickly the Keepers have lost.
To deceive in a prediction market is to change the outcome. In this case in the opposite of the way the Keepers want. The whole point of having the utterly trustworthy reputation of the Keepers is so that they can make unexplained bids that strongly signal “you shouldn’t do this and also you shouldn’t ask too hard why not” and have people believe them.
If Keepers utilise their secret information to bet well then that is a way for the secrets to leak out. So flaunting their ability and confidentiality are in conflict there. I wouldn’t put it past for Keepers to be able to model “What would I think if I did not posses my secret informations” to a very fine detail level, but then that judgement is not the full blown judgement or concern that the person can do.
But this prediction market is exactly the one case where, if the Keepers are concerned about AGI existential risk, signalling to the market not to do this thing is much much more important than preserving the secret. Preventing this thing is what you’re preserving the secret for; if Civilization starts advancing computing too quickly the Keepers have lost.
To deceive in a prediction market is to change the outcome. In this case in the opposite of the way the Keepers want. The whole point of having the utterly trustworthy reputation of the Keepers is so that they can make unexplained bids that strongly signal “you shouldn’t do this and also you shouldn’t ask too hard why not” and have people believe them.