SimonM models potential meat demand decreasing [by reusing historical data from] the “decline” in smoking
NPR (a) has gotten some economists [-] who disagree [-] to make quantifiable predictions
Responses:
incentivize people to make forecasts on lots of questions even if they have no particular information advantage,
Might be ‘okay’ early on to create a base estimate (i.e., trying to make sure questions aren’t ‘empty’ (of responses)).
disincentivize forecasters to forecast even if they know the true word-from-God probability exactly
Variant*: A fair coin is being flipped. The distribution is 50⁄50, but someone who knows that is disincentivized from saying (or forecasting, in system) this outcome.
*or example?
I remember reading them, and finding them very persuasive, and then realizing that such persuasiveness was probably fairly uncorrelated with the truth.
Interestingly, at a time when even the finest elite publications do not cover foreign affairs as seriously and as disinterestedly as they once did, corporations have been reaching out to private forecasting companies to get a cold-blooded sense of the middle-term future in many places.
Also, the practice of archiving/finding an archived version of referenced material—is fantastic.
Sure, might be ok early on. But you could require the question maker to provide a probability (and, at least I always predict on the questions I predict), or reward forecasting early directly.
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Did they make testable, or empirical, claims?
Actually yes, I have a list of 10 predictions here which I extracted from his blog, but I’ve been procrastinating on evaluating them.
[Suggested] Changes:
Responses:
Might be ‘okay’ early on to create a base estimate (i.e., trying to make sure questions aren’t ‘empty’ (of responses)).
Variant*: A fair coin is being flipped. The distribution is 50⁄50, but someone who knows that is disincentivized from saying (or forecasting, in system) this outcome.
*or example?
Did they make testable, or empirical, claims?
The quotes from “The Perils of Forecasting (a)” was great.
Also, the practice of archiving/finding an archived version of referenced material—is fantastic.
Thanks, added your suggestions.
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Sure, might be ok early on. But you could require the question maker to provide a probability (and, at least I always predict on the questions I predict), or reward forecasting early directly.
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Actually yes, I have a list of 10 predictions here which I extracted from his blog, but I’ve been procrastinating on evaluating them.
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Cheers.