My Bayes’ is not very strong, so forgive me. This is about as naive as it gets.
Prior for adult ADHD is about 4%.
For working memory:
2SD difference given ADHD is 35%, and for the rest of the population it’s 2.4%. I’ll use LWM to represent a significantly lower working memory.
This suggests an overall population of 3.7% having a 2SD difference, since 4% x 35% + 96% x 2.4% = 3.7%
So P(ADHD | LWM) = 35% x 4% / 3.7% = 37.8%
For processing speed:
2SD difference given ADHD is 44.9%, and for the rest of the population it’s 8.7%. I’ll use LPS to represent a significantly lower processing speed
This suggests and overall population of 10.1% having a 2SD difference, since 44.9% x 4% + 8.7% x 96% = 10.1%
so P(ADHD | LPS) = 44.9% x 4% / 10.1% = 17.8%
Each of those increase the odds of ADHD significantly above the population baseline, and if you’re experiencing ADHD symptoms in conjunction with results like that, it’s probably worth seeing a psychiatrist.
Thanks for taking the time to math that out :)
I have seen a few psychiatrists in the past 5 years and unfortunately medication wasn’t an option. I do think I’m performing better with age however!
My Bayes’ is not very strong, so forgive me. This is about as naive as it gets.
Prior for adult ADHD is about 4%.
For working memory:
2SD difference given ADHD is 35%, and for the rest of the population it’s 2.4%. I’ll use LWM to represent a significantly lower working memory.
This suggests an overall population of 3.7% having a 2SD difference, since 4% x 35% + 96% x 2.4% = 3.7%
So P(ADHD | LWM) = 35% x 4% / 3.7% = 37.8%
For processing speed:
2SD difference given ADHD is 44.9%, and for the rest of the population it’s 8.7%. I’ll use LPS to represent a significantly lower processing speed
This suggests and overall population of 10.1% having a 2SD difference, since 44.9% x 4% + 8.7% x 96% = 10.1%
so P(ADHD | LPS) = 44.9% x 4% / 10.1% = 17.8%
Each of those increase the odds of ADHD significantly above the population baseline, and if you’re experiencing ADHD symptoms in conjunction with results like that, it’s probably worth seeing a psychiatrist.
Thanks for taking the time to math that out :) I have seen a few psychiatrists in the past 5 years and unfortunately medication wasn’t an option. I do think I’m performing better with age however!