I don’t mean to suggest “just supporting the companies” is a good strategy, but there are promising non-power-seeking strategies like “improve collaboration between the leading AI labs” that I think are worth biasing towards.
Maybe the crux is how strongly capitalist incentives bind AI lab behavior. I think none of the currently leading AI labs (OpenAI, DeepMind, Google Brain) are actually so tightly bound by capitalist incentives that their leaders couldn’t delay AI system deployment by at least a few months, and probably more like several years, before capitalist incentives in the form of shareholder lawsuits or new entrants that poach their key technical staff have a chance to materialize.
Maybe the crux is how strongly capitalist incentives bind AI lab behavior. I think none of the currently leading AI labs (OpenAI, DeepMind, Google Brain) are actually so tightly bound by capitalist incentives that their leaders couldn’t delay AI system deployment by at least a few months, and probably more like several years.
This is the crux, thank you for identifying it.
Yeah, I’m fairly pessimistic for several years time, since I don’t think they’re that special of a company in resisting capitalist nudges and incentives.
And yeah I’m laughing because unless the alignment/safety teams control what capabilities are added, then I do not expect the capabilities teams to stop, because they won’t get paid for that.
I don’t mean to suggest “just supporting the companies” is a good strategy, but there are promising non-power-seeking strategies like “improve collaboration between the leading AI labs” that I think are worth biasing towards.
Maybe the crux is how strongly capitalist incentives bind AI lab behavior. I think none of the currently leading AI labs (OpenAI, DeepMind, Google Brain) are actually so tightly bound by capitalist incentives that their leaders couldn’t delay AI system deployment by at least a few months, and probably more like several years, before capitalist incentives in the form of shareholder lawsuits or new entrants that poach their key technical staff have a chance to materialize.
This is the crux, thank you for identifying it.
Yeah, I’m fairly pessimistic for several years time, since I don’t think they’re that special of a company in resisting capitalist nudges and incentives.
And yeah I’m laughing because unless the alignment/safety teams control what capabilities are added, then I do not expect the capabilities teams to stop, because they won’t get paid for that.