“my basic prediction is that AI-enabled biology and medicine will allow us to compress the progress that human biologists would have achieved over the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years.”
This may be correct, but his estimate of what is expected to be achieved in 100 years without AI is likely wildly overoptimistic. In particular, his argument for doubling of lifespan is just an extrapolation from past increase in life expectancy, which is ridiculous because progress in extending maximum human lifespan so far is exactly zero.
I agree that there are significant uncertainties on the specific consequences of AI accelerating bio/medicine R&D, but I think even without buying into Amodei’s specific speculations on life extension, you would still get wildly transformative breakthroughs and unforeseen consequences. I do agree it seems to make sense to be wary of just extrapolating past increases in life expectancy.
Amodei’s general argument is this:
“my basic prediction is that AI-enabled biology and medicine will allow us to compress the progress that human biologists would have achieved over the next 50-100 years into 5-10 years.”
This may be correct, but his estimate of what is expected to be achieved in 100 years without AI is likely wildly overoptimistic. In particular, his argument for doubling of lifespan is just an extrapolation from past increase in life expectancy, which is ridiculous because progress in extending maximum human lifespan so far is exactly zero.
I agree that there are significant uncertainties on the specific consequences of AI accelerating bio/medicine R&D, but I think even without buying into Amodei’s specific speculations on life extension, you would still get wildly transformative breakthroughs and unforeseen consequences. I do agree it seems to make sense to be wary of just extrapolating past increases in life expectancy.
Time will tell!