Agreed, pretty much. I said significant probability, not big. I’m not good at translating anticipations into numbers, but no more than 5%. Mostly based on extreme outside view, as in “something I haven’t thought of”.
Oh, right. “Significance” is subjective, I guess. I assumed it meant, I don’t know, >10% or whatever.
Agreed, pretty much. I said significant probability, not big. I’m not good at translating anticipations into numbers, but no more than 5%. Mostly based on extreme outside view, as in “something I haven’t thought of”.
Oh, right. “Significance” is subjective, I guess. I assumed it meant, I don’t know, >10% or whatever.