Thanks! I’m aware of the resources mentioned but haven’t read deeply or frequently enough to have this kind of overview of the interaction between the cast of characters.
There are more than a few lists and surveys that state the CDFs for some of these people which helps a bit. A big-as-possible list of evidence/priors would be one way to closer inspect the gap. I wonder if it would be helpful to expand on the MIRI conversations and have a slow conversation between a >99% doom pessimist and a <50% doom ‘optimist’ with a moderator to prod them to exhaustively dig up their reactions to each piece of evidence and keep pulling out priors until we get to indifference. It probably would be an uncomfortable, awkward experiment with a useless result, but there’s a chance that some item on the list ends up being useful for either party to ask questions about.
That format would be useful for me to understand where we’re at. Maybe something along these lines will eventually prompt a popular and viral sociology author like Harari or Bostrom (or even just update the CDFs/evidence in Superintelligence). The general deep learning community probably needs to hear it mentioned and normalized on NPR and a bestseller a few times (like all the other x-risks are) before they’ll start talking about it at lunch.
Thanks! I’m aware of the resources mentioned but haven’t read deeply or frequently enough to have this kind of overview of the interaction between the cast of characters.
There are more than a few lists and surveys that state the CDFs for some of these people which helps a bit. A big-as-possible list of evidence/priors would be one way to closer inspect the gap. I wonder if it would be helpful to expand on the MIRI conversations and have a slow conversation between a >99% doom pessimist and a <50% doom ‘optimist’ with a moderator to prod them to exhaustively dig up their reactions to each piece of evidence and keep pulling out priors until we get to indifference. It probably would be an uncomfortable, awkward experiment with a useless result, but there’s a chance that some item on the list ends up being useful for either party to ask questions about.
That format would be useful for me to understand where we’re at. Maybe something along these lines will eventually prompt a popular and viral sociology author like Harari or Bostrom (or even just update the CDFs/evidence in Superintelligence). The general deep learning community probably needs to hear it mentioned and normalized on NPR and a bestseller a few times (like all the other x-risks are) before they’ll start talking about it at lunch.