Thanks! Do you know of any arguments with a similar style to The Most Important Century that is as pessimistic as EY/MIRI folks (>90% probability of AGI within 15 years)? The style looks good, but time estimates for that one (2/3rd chance AGI by 2100) are significantly longer and aren’t nearly as surprising or urgent as the pessimistic view asks for.
Do you know of any arguments with a similar style to The Most Important Century that is as pessimistic as EY/MIRI folks (>90% probability of AGI within 15 years)?
Wait, what? Why do you think anyone at MIRI assigns >90% probability to AGI within 15 years? That sounds wildly too confident to me. I know some MIRI people who assign 50% probability to AGI by 2038 or so (similar to Ajeya Cotra’s recently updated view), and I believe Eliezer is higher than 50% by 2038, but if you told me that Eliezer told you in a private conversation “90+% within 15 years” I would flatly not believe you.
I don’t think timelines have that much to do with why Eliezer and Nate and I are way more pessimistic than the Open Phil crew.
I missed your reply, but thanks for calling this out. I’m nowhere as close to you to EY so I’ll take your model over mine, since mine was constructed on loose grounds. I don’t even remember where my number came from, but my best guess is 90% came from EY giving 3/15/16 as the largest number he referenced in the timeline, and from some comments in the Death with Dignity post, but this seems like a bad read to me now.
Thanks! Do you know of any arguments with a similar style to The Most Important Century that is as pessimistic as EY/MIRI folks (>90% probability of AGI within 15 years)? The style looks good, but time estimates for that one (2/3rd chance AGI by 2100) are significantly longer and aren’t nearly as surprising or urgent as the pessimistic view asks for.
Wait, what? Why do you think anyone at MIRI assigns >90% probability to AGI within 15 years? That sounds wildly too confident to me. I know some MIRI people who assign 50% probability to AGI by 2038 or so (similar to Ajeya Cotra’s recently updated view), and I believe Eliezer is higher than 50% by 2038, but if you told me that Eliezer told you in a private conversation “90+% within 15 years” I would flatly not believe you.
I don’t think timelines have that much to do with why Eliezer and Nate and I are way more pessimistic than the Open Phil crew.
I missed your reply, but thanks for calling this out. I’m nowhere as close to you to EY so I’ll take your model over mine, since mine was constructed on loose grounds. I don’t even remember where my number came from, but my best guess is 90% came from EY giving 3/15/16 as the largest number he referenced in the timeline, and from some comments in the Death with Dignity post, but this seems like a bad read to me now.
Not off the top of my head; I think @Rob Bensinger might keep better track of intro resources?