I think the culprit is ‘overturned’. That makes it sound like their counterarguments were a done deal or something. I’ll reword that to ‘rebutted and reframed in finer detail’.
Yeah, I think overturned is the word I took issue with. How about ‘disputed’? That seems to be the term that remains agnostic about whether there is something wrong with the original argument or not.
Perhaps, your impression from your circle is different from mine in terms of what proportion of AIS researchers prioritise work on the fast takeoff scenario?
My impression is that gradual takeoff has gone from a minority to a majority position on LessWrong, primarily due to Paul Christiano, but not an overwhelming majority. (I don’t know how it differs among Alignment Researchers.)
I believe the only data I’ve seen on this was in a thread where people were asked to make predictions about AI stuff, including takeoff speed and timelines, using the new interactive prediction feature. (I can’t find this post—maybe someone else remembers what it was called?) I believe that was roughly compatible with the sizeable minority summary, but I could be wrong.
My impression is that gradual takeoff has gone from a minority to a majority position on LessWrong, primarily due to Paul Christiano, but not an overwhelming majority
This roughly corresponds with my impression actually. I know a group that has surveyed researchers that have permission to post on the AI Alignment Forum, but they haven’t posted an analysis of the survey’s answers yet.
Yeah, I think overturned is the word I took issue with. How about ‘disputed’? That seems to be the term that remains agnostic about whether there is something wrong with the original argument or not.
My impression is that gradual takeoff has gone from a minority to a majority position on LessWrong, primarily due to Paul Christiano, but not an overwhelming majority. (I don’t know how it differs among Alignment Researchers.)
I believe the only data I’ve seen on this was in a thread where people were asked to make predictions about AI stuff, including takeoff speed and timelines, using the new interactive prediction feature. (I can’t find this post—maybe someone else remembers what it was called?) I believe that was roughly compatible with the sizeable minority summary, but I could be wrong.
Seems good. Let me adjust!
This roughly corresponds with my impression actually.
I know a group that has surveyed researchers that have permission to post on the AI Alignment Forum, but they haven’t posted an analysis of the survey’s answers yet.