an 80% chance that the base rate for polyamorists [...] would directly give rise to a probability of 50% [...] three or more persons.
Let’s consider those numbers for a moment. I don’t know what counts as “fairly closely associated with MIRI” but let’s say there are 30 people who would count as being “fairly closely associated”. (AIUI that’s a lot more than, e.g., the number of people actually employed by MIRI.) If my calculations are right, this means that for Pr(true of at least 3) >= 0.5 we’d need to have Pr(true of any given person) >= 0.09ish.
The accusation, if my memory isn’t misleading me, is that MIRI is a hotbed of child rape. So, Unknowns, are you 80% confident that about 9% of polyamorists are serial child rapists? Really?
I would consider that description to be part of what I called the black and white painting of the situation.
The substance of the claim is sex with a person under the age of consent, which in California is 18. Yes, it seems quite likely to me that 9% of polyamorists have had sex with 17 year old persons who wanted it. Many people would think this should be quite legal.
Let’s consider those numbers for a moment. I don’t know what counts as “fairly closely associated with MIRI” but let’s say there are 30 people who would count as being “fairly closely associated”. (AIUI that’s a lot more than, e.g., the number of people actually employed by MIRI.) If my calculations are right, this means that for Pr(true of at least 3) >= 0.5 we’d need to have Pr(true of any given person) >= 0.09ish.
The accusation, if my memory isn’t misleading me, is that MIRI is a hotbed of child rape. So, Unknowns, are you 80% confident that about 9% of polyamorists are serial child rapists? Really?
I would consider that description to be part of what I called the black and white painting of the situation.
The substance of the claim is sex with a person under the age of consent, which in California is 18. Yes, it seems quite likely to me that 9% of polyamorists have had sex with 17 year old persons who wanted it. Many people would think this should be quite legal.