Ron Paul runs as an Independent or third party. 20%
Obama reelected. 60%
IF Obama reelected, white male goes on a shooting spree citing political climate as motivation. (Ignore this prediction if Obama not reelected.) 10%
The men’s rights movement is mentioned in a Time or Newsweek article. 5%
Dark Knight Rises gets 50-85% on Rotten Tomatoes. (Good, but not as good as Dark Knight) 60%
New Michael Jackson song released posthumously. 20%
Chris Brown arrested on new domestic violence charges. 20%
ISTM that a shooter mentioning the political climate is significantly more likely than the shooter “mentioning the ‘political climate’ ”. I think that quote marks mean exact quotes there.
Obama reelected. 60% IF Obama NOT reelected, riots occur in several urban centres, the vast (over 90%) majority of the rioters are black males and females. 80%
Michael Jackson song released. 10% Chris Brown arrested on new domestic violence charges. 5%
And actually yes, I assign a very low probability to all (defined here as over 95%) female mob less than 1%, an all male one (defined again as 95%+) still has low odds but I’d put it at 30% in at least one city in the above scenario.
But to be honest I used the terminology to mirror.
Obama reelected. 60% IF Obama reelected, white male goes on a shooting spree citing political climate as motivation.
I did this because wanted to check out how it would do karma wise compared to the parent prediction.
Just to clarify, what I’d actually meant was, given a 60% confidence of a riot with >90% (black males + females), what are your expectations about the % of females. (I worded the question atrociously, my apologies.)
But given your actual motivation for the prediction, it’s kind of moot.
Just to clarify, what I’d actually meant was, given a 60% confidence of a riot with >90% (black males + females), what are your expectations about the % of females. (I worded the question atrociously, my apologies.)
Ron Paul runs as an Independent or third party. 20% Obama reelected. 60% IF Obama reelected, white male goes on a shooting spree citing political climate as motivation. (Ignore this prediction if Obama not reelected.) 10% The men’s rights movement is mentioned in a Time or Newsweek article. 5% Dark Knight Rises gets 50-85% on Rotten Tomatoes. (Good, but not as good as Dark Knight) 60% New Michael Jackson song released posthumously. 20% Chris Brown arrested on new domestic violence charges. 20%
If Obama is re-elected, then a white male will go on a “shooting spree” and the shooter will mention the “political climate” as a motivating factor. If the antecedent proposition is false, then this prediction will be withdrawn.
The mens’ rights movement will be mentioned by name in a Time or Newsweek article sometime during 2012.
Dark Knight Rises will be released in 2012 and will obtain Rotten Tomotoes score of at equal to or greater than 50% and equal or less than 85%.
A previously unreleased song by Michael Jackson will be released sometime before 2013.
Chris Brown will be arrested for assault, domestic violence, or criminal damage before 2013.
Any complaints with my interpretation of your prediction statements?
Looks great, thanks for figuring out the formatting.
The ones I didn’t add were already on PredictionBook or had a close substitute that was.
ISTM that a shooter mentioning the political climate is significantly more likely than the shooter “mentioning the ‘political climate’ ”. I think that quote marks mean exact quotes there.
Obama reelected. 60% IF Obama NOT reelected, riots occur in several urban centres, the vast (over 90%) majority of the rioters are black males and females. 80%
Michael Jackson song released. 10% Chris Brown arrested on new domestic violence charges. 5%
The “90+% of rioters are X and females” part of this prediction really intrigues me. Do you have a related expectation about just females?
And actually yes, I assign a very low probability to all (defined here as over 95%) female mob less than 1%, an all male one (defined again as 95%+) still has low odds but I’d put it at 30% in at least one city in the above scenario.
But to be honest I used the terminology to mirror.
I did this because wanted to check out how it would do karma wise compared to the parent prediction.
Ah, I see.
Just to clarify, what I’d actually meant was, given a 60% confidence of a riot with >90% (black males + females), what are your expectations about the % of females. (I worded the question atrociously, my apologies.)
But given your actual motivation for the prediction, it’s kind of moot.
About 20% to 30%.