That would be overconfident. This prediction requires several burdensome additional details, including but not limited to:
The existence of the Holy Grail
The existence of Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres and his chaos legion, which ALSO implies additional burdensome details including that the laws of thermodynamics are wrong, there’s a giant secret castle in Scotland where people learn magic, that giant squids live in shallow freshwater habitats, that faster-than-light travel is possible and that complete idiots could be in charge of insanely powerful magic for at least a thousand years without destroying the world.
Suzumiya Haruhi exists
Because of 3 and 2, there are two totally different systems of magic in the world.
Death Notes exist. (The probability of that given both 2 and 3 is not too bad, though.)
MoR Ginny will side with MoR Harry.
Ninjas currently exist.
Ninjas are planning to assassinate the President.
They’re not just going to do that, but do it on February 13, as opposed to the 12th or 14th or some random day in March.
If Obama were assassinated, Sarah Palin would be electable.
Sarah Palin would actually try to become President under those circumstances.
To assign 99% probability to this requires some serious conjunction fallacy and something very wrong with your mind.
You forgot a (99%) at the end. ;)
That would be overconfident. This prediction requires several burdensome additional details, including but not limited to:
The existence of the Holy Grail
The existence of Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres and his chaos legion, which ALSO implies additional burdensome details including that the laws of thermodynamics are wrong, there’s a giant secret castle in Scotland where people learn magic, that giant squids live in shallow freshwater habitats, that faster-than-light travel is possible and that complete idiots could be in charge of insanely powerful magic for at least a thousand years without destroying the world.
Suzumiya Haruhi exists
Because of 3 and 2, there are two totally different systems of magic in the world.
Death Notes exist. (The probability of that given both 2 and 3 is not too bad, though.)
MoR Ginny will side with MoR Harry.
Ninjas currently exist.
Ninjas are planning to assassinate the President.
They’re not just going to do that, but do it on February 13, as opposed to the 12th or 14th or some random day in March.
If Obama were assassinated, Sarah Palin would be electable.
Sarah Palin would actually try to become President under those circumstances.
To assign 99% probability to this requires some serious conjunction fallacy and something very wrong with your mind.
Alternative explanation: It’s a satire of the (already ridiculously overconfident) prediction it was written in response to.
Alternative alternative explanation: The parent is also a satire of an appropriate response to said prediction.
(I thought it was funny, at least)
Ding ding ding we have a winner.
(Four downvotes? I’m really unfunny or really bad at signaling when I’m joking.)
Third hypothesis, people realised it was a joke but didn’t find it sufficiently funny, and therefore chose deliberately to punish you.
It was funny enough to me.… Maybe you overdid the deadpan?
It’s hard to deadpan without a face to do it with.
Sounds like something to say to Neo when he’s getting lippy!
The latter, I think, and the fact that we’ve seen others completely miss the joke with regularity in the past.