I guess I might as well roll the dice. I’m just going to throw out predictions, not give percent probabilities, because I’m not entirely certain where I’d pull the numbers out of (besides the usual place, heh).
SOPA will pass, in the first quarter of the year, in its current form or something very much like it.
The public outcry about SOPA will die down to negligible levels by the end of the year (say, the second half of December 2012).
Armed hostilities between Israel and its neighbours in the Middle East will continue throughout the year, with intervals of peace (if any) lasting no longer than 3 months.
A new chapter of HP:MoR, which would be more than two pages in length, will be posted
Fewer than four such new chapters will be posted.
At least one natural disaster, such as a major flood, hurricane, earthquake, or forest fire, will occur somewhere in the world
However, no extinction-level events will occur
Friendly AI will not be developed, and
The Singularity will not happen
50% or more of the predictions on this thread, including mine, will turn out to be wrong.
Looks like I was wrong about SOPA. I’m pretty happy to be wrong in this case !
As for Israel at war, the reason I said “armed hostilities” instead is exactly because Israel is not formally at war with anyone (that I know of). That’s very different from being at peace, though.
I guess I might as well roll the dice. I’m just going to throw out predictions, not give percent probabilities, because I’m not entirely certain where I’d pull the numbers out of (besides the usual place, heh).
SOPA will pass, in the first quarter of the year, in its current form or something very much like it.
The public outcry about SOPA will die down to negligible levels by the end of the year (say, the second half of December 2012).
Armed hostilities between Israel and its neighbours in the Middle East will continue throughout the year, with intervals of peace (if any) lasting no longer than 3 months.
A new chapter of HP:MoR, which would be more than two pages in length, will be posted
Fewer than four such new chapters will be posted.
At least one natural disaster, such as a major flood, hurricane, earthquake, or forest fire, will occur somewhere in the world
However, no extinction-level events will occur
Friendly AI will not be developed, and
The Singularity will not happen
50% or more of the predictions on this thread, including mine, will turn out to be wrong.
http://predictionbook.com/predictions/4952 and http://predictionbook.com/predictions/4945 are close
Not recording; it’s not going to pass, so of course the public outcry will die down.
? I wasn’t aware Israel was at war
http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5484
http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5485
Looks like I was wrong about SOPA. I’m pretty happy to be wrong in this case !
As for Israel at war, the reason I said “armed hostilities” instead is exactly because Israel is not formally at war with anyone (that I know of). That’s very different from being at peace, though.
I thought they’d been at war for the last 4k years!