Obama will win in November 2012.
P=~.9 (that is ninety percent!)
90%? I think you need to read some Nate Silver. (Also, existing prediction.)
Thank you for the link to Silver’s piece. I followed 538 in 2008 but I had not looked at it in awhile. Obviously .9 is far too high.
Upvoted for updating.
Intrade gives him barely above 50% chance, so you can make some money fast if you really believe your prediction.
you can make some money fast if you really believe your prediction.
And it’s correct.
I want to make a bet at those odds. Mostly based on gwern’s reply.
Obama will win in November 2012.
P=~.9 (that is ninety percent!)
90%? I think you need to read some Nate Silver. (Also, existing prediction.)
Thank you for the link to Silver’s piece. I followed 538 in 2008 but I had not looked at it in awhile. Obviously .9 is far too high.
Upvoted for updating.
Intrade gives him barely above 50% chance, so you can make some money fast if you really believe your prediction.
And it’s correct.
I want to make a bet at those odds. Mostly based on gwern’s reply.