I will manage to rent my grandparent’s house before the end of the year 40%
I will manage to sell my grandparent’s house before the end of the year 15%
(Neither of the two happens 45%)
My girlfriend will come to live with me in my flat before the end of the year: 60%
I will manage to stabilize my weight between 70 and 73 kilos: 50%
I will buy more than 50 musical records on physical support (cd / vinyl) 70%
I will finally do a complete inventory of my music collection 30%
In case the previous happens, I will turn out to own more than 1000 albums 80%
I will end up fighting with my very fervent and freshly converted friend because of a joke about religion I made 20%
Sport
Roger Federer will win at least one grand slam tournament or the olympic gold medal 70%
No Italian football team will reach the semifinals of the Europa League or the Champions League 75%
Italy will win between 8 and 12 gold medal at the summer olympics games 80%
(Italian) politics, economy and society
There will be an election round in 2012 80%
Neither of the two biggest parties will get more than 30% of the preferences if the previous happens 70%
Italy won’t default 95%
Price of gas will reach a peak greater than 2.00 € / liter 40%
The Catholic Church will still be exempted from the payment of the IMU (tax on the property of buildings) 95%
Miscellaneous
ATLAS and CMS will announce the discovery of the Higgs Boson 95%
No other new particles will be discovered (5 sigma significance) in 2012 60%
HPMOR won’t be finished before the end of the year 60%
The mean temperature in Europe during July will be higher than the corresponding one in 2011 75%
About your grandparent’s house: i seems to me like once you specify the probability of renting and selling at 40% and 15%, you have already decided that the probability of neither happening would be 1-(1-.4)(1-.15)=49%. This appears inconsistent with the 45% prediction, or am I missing something?
He’s assuming he won’t rent it and then sell it, so the three possibilities (renting, selling, and neither) are mutually exclusive, and they do sum up to 100% as they should.
Ok, let’s join the party! Personal:
I will manage to rent my grandparent’s house before the end of the year 40% I will manage to sell my grandparent’s house before the end of the year 15% (Neither of the two happens 45%)
My girlfriend will come to live with me in my flat before the end of the year: 60%
I will manage to stabilize my weight between 70 and 73 kilos: 50%
I will buy more than 50 musical records on physical support (cd / vinyl) 70%
I will finally do a complete inventory of my music collection 30%
In case the previous happens, I will turn out to own more than 1000 albums 80%
I will end up fighting with my very fervent and freshly converted friend because of a joke about religion I made 20%
Sport
Roger Federer will win at least one grand slam tournament or the olympic gold medal 70%
No Italian football team will reach the semifinals of the Europa League or the Champions League 75%
Italy will win between 8 and 12 gold medal at the summer olympics games 80%
(Italian) politics, economy and society
There will be an election round in 2012 80%
Neither of the two biggest parties will get more than 30% of the preferences if the previous happens 70%
Italy won’t default 95%
Price of gas will reach a peak greater than 2.00 € / liter 40%
The Catholic Church will still be exempted from the payment of the IMU (tax on the property of buildings) 95%
Miscellaneous
ATLAS and CMS will announce the discovery of the Higgs Boson 95%
No other new particles will be discovered (5 sigma significance) in 2012 60%
HPMOR won’t be finished before the end of the year 60%
The mean temperature in Europe during July will be higher than the corresponding one in 2011 75%
About your grandparent’s house: i seems to me like once you specify the probability of renting and selling at 40% and 15%, you have already decided that the probability of neither happening would be 1-(1-.4)(1-.15)=49%. This appears inconsistent with the 45% prediction, or am I missing something?
He’s assuming he won’t rent it and then sell it, so the three possibilities (renting, selling, and neither) are mutually exclusive, and they do sum up to 100% as they should.