gwern comments on New Year’s Prediction Thread (2012)

[gwern]

1. Mm. I don’t think I can narrow this down to any degree—by many metrics, we already do this sort of mariculture.

2. http://​​predictionbook.com/​​predictions/​​5470

3. Too vague given all the possible Singularities and posthuman scenarios

4. http://​​predictionbook.com/​​predictions/​​5471

5. http://​​predictionbook.com/​​predictions/​​5472

6. Too hard to define what is a currency

7. Too vague—what is augmentation?

8. http://​​predictionbook.com/​​predictions/​​5473

9. http://​​predictionbook.com/​​predictions/​​5474

10. http://​​predictionbook.com/​​predictions/​​5475

11. http://​​predictionbook.com/​​predictions/​​5476

12. Too vague, what is ‘lead’?

13. http://​​predictionbook.com/​​predictions/​​5477

14. Too vague, what is routinely? Seems pretty routine now...

15. Too vague

16. I’d like to register a low confidence prediction here, but… which deserts? Deserts usually shift. (This wouldn’t be hard—for example, a prediction that the Sahara will shrink.)

17. Too vague

18. http://​​predictionbook.com/​​predictions/​​5479

19. Too vague

20. Too vague