my predictions: at the end of the year 2012
self (*)
I’ll log more than 1460 work hours in my logging tool for the year:70%
I can accurately describe myself as a hard worker. 60%
I weight below 100kg (220 pound) end of year: 30%
I’ll get the big scale project one of my teams was applying for: 20%
I’ll severely improve in the art that shall not be named: 60%
I finish university:60%
I still am involved in my goal club: 75%
I will have experienced credit card fraud: 5%
I will still follow my current diet regime (no alcohol, reduced sugar, no cola): 90%
I’ll start a business project from my backlog: 40%
I’ll still use NEO and F.LUX: 98 %
I’ll revisit and score this prediction in the first week of 2013: 95%
I’ll rejoin Toastmasters: 70%
(*) predicting self related things is a bit weird, since I could influence it based on the amount I bet on it
LW
I’ll gain a new super important insights: 10%
There are 10 or more MOR updates:97%
They will be really awesome:60%
world:
the EURO will still exist: 95%
there will be steps undertaken to remove the EURO: 7%
Greece got another bailout: 30%
the GRG Table E will have less than 100 cases over the whole year: 80% (this include retroactively validated entries)
the current 4 entries with an age over 114 will all be dead:65%
and for calender mystics: the number of cases born <1.1.1900 will drop below 10: 70%
the world will not end in 2012: 99,99999%
people will find new scary date in the future: 87%
the US or GB will take steps to increase metrification:3%
Germany:
the FDP (german liberal/libertarians) will be gone: 5%
the FDP will become unimportant:60%
Germany will have a new president: 70%
trueisms:
some major catastrophe happens in the world:95%
a major political scandal: 99%
earthquakes in Japan: 100%
Obama wins:60%
if Ron Paul wins, he will not succeed in cutting spending:80%
people will complain, but actually be fine:90%
I will have forgotten to write in some prediction I thought about during the last week:90%
And now the scoring:
self I’ll log more than 1460 work hours in my logging tool for the year:70%
self
No, just 612,5 == 42% of the planned minimum.
Not quite there yet.
No.
Yes.
I’ll rejoin Toastmasters: 70% No. LW I’ll gain a new super important insights: 10%
I’ll rejoin Toastmasters: 70% No.
LW I’ll gain a new super important insights: 10%
Probably. Difficult to score.
Yes, but that was close.
world: the EURO will still exist: 95%
Yes
Kind of. Hard to score.
Yes (61 atm)
No (15 atm)
Hard to score, probably true.
Germany: the FDP (german liberal/libertarians) will be gone: 5%
To difficult to score yet.
Germany will have a new president: 70% Yes. trueisms: some major catastrophe happens in the world:95%
Not applicable. (Also probably wrong)
I am miscalibrated with the edgier numbers!
my predictions: at the end of the year 2012
self (*)
I’ll log more than 1460 work hours in my logging tool for the year:70%
I can accurately describe myself as a hard worker. 60%
I weight below 100kg (220 pound) end of year: 30%
I’ll get the big scale project one of my teams was applying for: 20%
I’ll severely improve in the art that shall not be named: 60%
I finish university:60%
I still am involved in my goal club: 75%
I will have experienced credit card fraud: 5%
I will still follow my current diet regime (no alcohol, reduced sugar, no cola): 90%
I’ll start a business project from my backlog: 40%
I’ll still use NEO and F.LUX: 98 %
I’ll revisit and score this prediction in the first week of 2013: 95%
I’ll rejoin Toastmasters: 70%
(*) predicting self related things is a bit weird, since I could influence it based on the amount I bet on it
LW
I’ll gain a new super important insights: 10%
There are 10 or more MOR updates:97%
They will be really awesome:60%
world:
the EURO will still exist: 95%
there will be steps undertaken to remove the EURO: 7%
Greece got another bailout: 30%
the GRG Table E will have less than 100 cases over the whole year: 80% (this include retroactively validated entries)
the current 4 entries with an age over 114 will all be dead:65%
and for calender mystics: the number of cases born <1.1.1900 will drop below 10: 70%
the world will not end in 2012: 99,99999%
people will find new scary date in the future: 87%
the US or GB will take steps to increase metrification:3%
Germany:
the FDP (german liberal/libertarians) will be gone: 5%
the FDP will become unimportant:60%
Germany will have a new president: 70%
trueisms:
some major catastrophe happens in the world:95%
a major political scandal: 99%
earthquakes in Japan: 100%
Obama wins:60%
if Ron Paul wins, he will not succeed in cutting spending:80%
people will complain, but actually be fine:90%
I will have forgotten to write in some prediction I thought about during the last week:90%
And now the scoring:
No, just 612,5 == 42% of the planned minimum.
Not quite there yet.
No.
No.
No.
No.
Yes.
No.
Yes.
No.
Yes.
Yes.
Probably. Difficult to score.
Yes, but that was close.
Yes.
Yes
No.
Kind of. Hard to score.
Yes (61 atm)
Yes.
No (15 atm)
Yes
Hard to score, probably true.
No.
No.
To difficult to score yet.
Yes.
Yes.
Yes.
Yes.
Not applicable. (Also probably wrong)
Yes.
No.
I am miscalibrated with the edgier numbers!