More than 1000 US troops (including soldiers, marines, sailors, and airmen) remain in Israel for at least 6 months after the ongoing joint military exercises are over. (75%)
Ron Paul fails to win any states in the Republican primary. (75% probability).
No 3rd party candidate gains 5% of the popular vote for president. (90%)
US official unemployment rate is still above 7% in December 2012. (75%)
Israel or the United States make no overt attack against Iran. (Covert drone strikes, missile strikes, or assassinations wouldn’t count.) (85%)
United States ceases to be a net fuel importer for 2012. (60%)
My own understanding was that fuel should refer to petroleum in general; if it referred only to refined processed end-stage fuel, we’d reach conclusions like ‘Iran is a massive net fuel importer’ (because while Iran exports plenty of oil, they don’t have the working refineries to turn it into gasoline etc). So for me the relevant part of that article would be
Total net crude and product imports fell 11 percent from a year earlier to 8.436 million barrels a day, the lowest level since 1995, department data showed.
Since I said “fuel” instead of “oil”, I assume I meant refined fuels only (e.g. home heating oil, diesel, gasoline, etc.). But as Jack pointed out, it seems like that milestone was passed in 2011, so I would call it false.
United States ceases to be a net fuel importer for 2012. (60%)
Just fuel, not figuring in crude oil? Does this require that the United States still was a net fuel importer at the end of 2011? Or is it just a prediction that the USA will not import more fuel than it exports during 2012?
Mitt Romney wins the Republican nomination (90%.)
More than 1000 US troops (including soldiers, marines, sailors, and airmen) remain in Israel for at least 6 months after the ongoing joint military exercises are over. (75%)
Ron Paul fails to win any states in the Republican primary. (75% probability).
No 3rd party candidate gains 5% of the popular vote for president. (90%)
US official unemployment rate is still above 7% in December 2012. (75%)
Israel or the United States make no overt attack against Iran. (Covert drone strikes, missile strikes, or assassinations wouldn’t count.) (85%)
United States ceases to be a net fuel importer for 2012. (60%)
Covered
Not listing because it’d be such a pain to judge (where would I get such information?)
http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3200
http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5480
http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5481
Covered
http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5482
Update on this?
I’m pretty sure the US ceased to be a net fuel importer for 2011. But there is some ambiguity in “fuel”.
My own understanding was that fuel should refer to petroleum in general; if it referred only to refined processed end-stage fuel, we’d reach conclusions like ‘Iran is a massive net fuel importer’ (because while Iran exports plenty of oil, they don’t have the working refineries to turn it into gasoline etc). So for me the relevant part of that article would be
Since I said “fuel” instead of “oil”, I assume I meant refined fuels only (e.g. home heating oil, diesel, gasoline, etc.). But as Jack pointed out, it seems like that milestone was passed in 2011, so I would call it false.
Alright, I’ll mark it false then.
Just fuel, not figuring in crude oil?
Does this require that the United States still was a net fuel importer at the end of 2011? Or is it just a prediction that the USA will not import more fuel than it exports during 2012?