Are there any tricks? Base-rates/frequencies (plus Laplace’s law) and breaking down conjunctions (#2 and 3 in http://www.gwern.net/Prediction%20markets#how-i-make-predictions ).
Are there any tricks? Base-rates/frequencies (plus Laplace’s law) and breaking down conjunctions (#2 and 3 in http://www.gwern.net/Prediction%20markets#how-i-make-predictions ).