My predictions to these topics:
No experiment apart from OPERA will measure a neutrino speed >c with a significance of more than 3 sigma in 2012: 85%
where the 15% are mainly related to measurement errors
OPERA or others will find a significant error in OPERAs measurements in 2012: 50%
Higgs boson will be seen with a local 5 sigma significance (ATLAS+CMS alone or in combination) near ~125 GeV in 2012: 90%
the current signal is quite clear already, even without the magic 5 sigma. So I expect that new data will increase the significance. From the 10%, a large part is related to possible problems with the LHC, it includes serious analysis problems, bad luck and the simple “there is no higgs”.
Higgs boson will be seen with a global 5 sigma significance (ATLAS+CMS alone or in combination) near ~125 GeV in 2012: 85%
this needs a bit more data than the local significance.
No other new particles will be seen with 5 sigma significance in 2012: 75%
up to now, I did not see any hint for a new particle from both collaborations, so I think there is no 3sigma evidence for anything at the moment
The LHC will collide protons with lead at the end of 2012: 75%
it was tested in 2011, but technical problems prevented collisions
Higgs boson with local (90%) and global (85%) 5sigma significance (updated to 70% below) → true
No other new particle (75%) → true
Proton-lead-collisions (75%): This is an interesting prediction. The collisions took place, but in september. and LHC plans to collide more in february. As I posted my prediction, such a deviation from the plan was somewhere at “other things I don’t even think about”, therefore I did not care about a precise definition of “end of 2012″. Open to interpretations.
From the other comment with predictions:
The discovery of at least one planet with less than 150% of earth’s radius within the habitable zone around a main-sequence star will be presented in 2012: 75% (+”with Kepler”: 70%) → wrong
“OPERA or others will find a significant error in OPERAs measurements in 2012: 50%”
This already became true, even if we don’t know the size (or even the direction) of the effect yet.
After hearing a talk of an ATLAS higgs researcher, an update lowered my higgs expectations a bit:
ATLAS and CMS will present a signal signifiance (local and global) of 5 sigma with the data of (2011+)2012 in combination at some time in the future: 85%
With a presentation of results (and 5 sigma, from any dataset) in 2012: 70%
Many media outlets are sufficiently marginal that whether they qualify as ‘in the media’ would require clarification. The BBC, obviously, is not one such.
Any major higgs update from ATLAS and CMS will be present in the media (including BBC), and they will give at least one update during the year (probably 1-2 in summer and one in december, similar to 2011).
Several “Earth like planets” will be in the media.
The discovery of at least one planet with less than 150% of earth’s radius within the habitable zone around a main-sequence star will be presented in 2012: 75% (+”with Kepler”: 70%)
Note that this may be the best in terms of “there can be life” which we can measure with current telescopes, as long as there is no life which influences the planet in a major way (e.g. changes its atmospheric composition)
I am also predicting, that:
1 - neutrinos will be faster than light in 2012 (60% confidence)
2 - Higgs boson will NOT be seen in 2012 (85% confidence)
My predictions to these topics: No experiment apart from OPERA will measure a neutrino speed >c with a significance of more than 3 sigma in 2012: 85%
where the 15% are mainly related to measurement errors OPERA or others will find a significant error in OPERAs measurements in 2012: 50%
Higgs boson will be seen with a local 5 sigma significance (ATLAS+CMS alone or in combination) near ~125 GeV in 2012: 90%
the current signal is quite clear already, even without the magic 5 sigma. So I expect that new data will increase the significance. From the 10%, a large part is related to possible problems with the LHC, it includes serious analysis problems, bad luck and the simple “there is no higgs”. Higgs boson will be seen with a global 5 sigma significance (ATLAS+CMS alone or in combination) near ~125 GeV in 2012: 85%
this needs a bit more data than the local significance.
No other new particles will be seen with 5 sigma significance in 2012: 75%
up to now, I did not see any hint for a new particle from both collaborations, so I think there is no 3sigma evidence for anything at the moment
The LHC will collide protons with lead at the end of 2012: 75%
it was tested in 2011, but technical problems prevented collisions
Let’s see.
No superluminal neutrinos (85%) → true
OPERA measurement error (50%) → true
Higgs boson with local (90%) and global (85%) 5sigma significance (updated to 70% below) → true
No other new particle (75%) → true
Proton-lead-collisions (75%): This is an interesting prediction. The collisions took place, but in september. and LHC plans to collide more in february. As I posted my prediction, such a deviation from the plan was somewhere at “other things I don’t even think about”, therefore I did not care about a precise definition of “end of 2012″. Open to interpretations.
From the other comment with predictions:
The discovery of at least one planet with less than 150% of earth’s radius within the habitable zone around a main-sequence star will be presented in 2012: 75% (+”with Kepler”: 70%) → wrong
This is great. You have predictions quite opposite to mines and we will see who is more right quite clearly.
I wish there was more dueling predictions.
This already became true, even if we don’t know the size (or even the direction) of the effect yet.
After hearing a talk of an ATLAS higgs researcher, an update lowered my higgs expectations a bit: ATLAS and CMS will present a signal signifiance (local and global) of 5 sigma with the data of (2011+)2012 in combination at some time in the future: 85%
With a presentation of results (and 5 sigma, from any dataset) in 2012: 70%
I was wrong.
Was “seen indirectly”. Exceeded my expectations.
Quibble, presumably you mean neutrinos will be proven to be travelling faster than speed of light?
Not proven. The next experiment(s) in 2012 will say the same as those of 2011 and earlier.
Still, the result will not be widely accepted as a proof.
And I give another prediction. Several “Earth like planets” will be in the media. And maybe a few Higgs “near sightings”.
There were, sure. And the standard phrase “may be more habitable planets than previously thought” was also there.
That is exactly what has happened.
“In the media” needs clarification.
And what would qualify as a ‘near sighting’?? If the effect we’ve seen is really due to that, then thousands of events have already involved it.
Does it? It was “in the media” in December 2011.
LHC: Higgs boson ‘may have been glimpsed’
Many media outlets are sufficiently marginal that whether they qualify as ‘in the media’ would require clarification. The BBC, obviously, is not one such.
Any major higgs update from ATLAS and CMS will be present in the media (including BBC), and they will give at least one update during the year (probably 1-2 in summer and one in december, similar to 2011).
The discovery of at least one planet with less than 150% of earth’s radius within the habitable zone around a main-sequence star will be presented in 2012: 75% (+”with Kepler”: 70%)
Note that this may be the best in terms of “there can be life” which we can measure with current telescopes, as long as there is no life which influences the planet in a major way (e.g. changes its atmospheric composition)