How confident are you of “Probability penalties are epistemic features—they affect what we believe, not just what we do. Maps, ideally, correspond to territories.”? That seems to me to be a strong heuristic, even a very very strong heuristic, but I don’t think it’s strong enough to carry the weight you’re placing on it here. I mean, more technically, the map corresponds to some relationship between the territory and the map-maker’s utility function, and nodes on a causal graph, which are, after all, probabilistic, and thus are features of maps, not of territories, are features of the map-maker’s utility function, not just summaries of evidence about the territory. I suspect that this formalism mixes elements of division of magical reality fluid between maps with elements of division of magical reality fluid between territories.
How confident are you of “Probability penalties are epistemic features—they affect what we believe, not just what we do. Maps, ideally, correspond to territories.”? That seems to me to be a strong heuristic, even a very very strong heuristic, but I don’t think it’s strong enough to carry the weight you’re placing on it here. I mean, more technically, the map corresponds to some relationship between the territory and the map-maker’s utility function, and nodes on a causal graph, which are, after all, probabilistic, and thus are features of maps, not of territories, are features of the map-maker’s utility function, not just summaries of evidence about the territory.
I suspect that this formalism mixes elements of division of magical reality fluid between maps with elements of division of magical reality fluid between territories.