Sure. But if you know the bias is 95⁄5 in favor of heads, and you see heads, you don’t update very strongly.
And yes, I was approximately that confident that something-like-MCTS was going to work, that it’d demolish well-posed math problems, and that this is the direction OpenAI would go in (after weighing in the rumor’s existence). The only question was the timing, and this is mostly within my expectations as well.
That’s significantly outside the prediction intervals of forecasters so I will need to see an metaculus /manifold/etc account where you explicitly make this prediction sir
Fair! Except I’m not arguing that you should take my other predictions at face value on the basis of my supposedly having been right that one time. Indeed, I wouldn’t do that without just the sort of receipt you’re asking for! (Which I don’t have. Best I can do is a December 1, 2023 private message I sent to Zvi making correct predictions regarding what o1-3 could be expected to be, but I don’t view these predictions as impressive and it notably lacks credences.)
I’m only countering your claim that no internally consistent version of me could have validly updated all the way here from November 2023. You’re free to assume that the actual version of me is dissembling or confabulating.
Sure. But if you know the bias is 95⁄5 in favor of heads, and you see heads, you don’t update very strongly.
And yes, I was approximately that confident that something-like-MCTS was going to work, that it’d demolish well-posed math problems, and that this is the direction OpenAI would go in (after weighing in the rumor’s existence). The only question was the timing, and this is mostly within my expectations as well.
That’s significantly outside the prediction intervals of forecasters so I will need to see an metaculus /manifold/etc account where you explicitly make this prediction sir
Fair! Except I’m not arguing that you should take my other predictions at face value on the basis of my supposedly having been right that one time. Indeed, I wouldn’t do that without just the sort of receipt you’re asking for! (Which I don’t have. Best I can do is a December 1, 2023 private message I sent to Zvi making correct predictions regarding what o1-3 could be expected to be, but I don’t view these predictions as impressive and it notably lacks credences.)
I’m only countering your claim that no internally consistent version of me could have validly updated all the way here from November 2023. You’re free to assume that the actual version of me is dissembling or confabulating.