I don’t think the “actual claim” is necessarily true. You need more assumptions than a fixed difficulty of AGI, assumptions that I don’t think everyone would agree with. I walk through two examples in my comment: one that implies “Gradual take-off implies shorter timelines” and one that implies “Gradual take-off implies longer timelines.”
I don’t think the “actual claim” is necessarily true. You need more assumptions than a fixed difficulty of AGI, assumptions that I don’t think everyone would agree with. I walk through two examples in my comment: one that implies “Gradual take-off implies shorter timelines” and one that implies “Gradual take-off implies longer timelines.”