Eliezer seems to think that the shift from proto agi to agi to asi will happen really fast and many of us on this site agree with him
thus its not sensible that there is a decade gap between “almost ai” and ai on metaculus . If I recall Turing (I think?) said something similar. That once we know the the way to generate even some intelligence things get very fast after that (heavily paraphrased).
So 2028 really is the beginning of the end if we do really see proto agi then.
Eliezer seems to think that the shift from proto agi to agi to asi will happen really fast and many of us on this site agree with him
thus its not sensible that there is a decade gap between “almost ai” and ai on metaculus . If I recall Turing (I think?) said something similar. That once we know the the way to generate even some intelligence things get very fast after that (heavily paraphrased).
So 2028 really is the beginning of the end if we do really see proto agi then.