Of the people heading to Hollywood with big dreams, the ones that become movie stars are the exception. Yet the potential rewards suffice to explain the hordes of people who try anyway.
Actually, they largely don’t. There is such a thing as overconfidence bias, you know. Most people would be better off ex-ante if they did not try to become top executives, movie stars, or pro athletes. Similarly, contraventing flat, “just say no” refusals is not a rationally optimal choice.
I know—I didn’t mean they’re justified by a standard rational utility maximization analysis. The point was just that it’s consistent with general overconfidence/miscalibration we observe in people in many other areas, even under the unfavorable assumptions thomblake gave.
ETA: Note that I said the incentives explain the numerous people who compete, not that the incentives justify such action. Also, I said it was “disproportionate motive force”. And no, I didn’t edit the original post just so it would have all that. :-P
Actually, they largely don’t. There is such a thing as overconfidence bias, you know. Most people would be better off ex-ante if they did not try to become top executives, movie stars, or pro athletes. Similarly, contraventing flat, “just say no” refusals is not a rationally optimal choice.
I know—I didn’t mean they’re justified by a standard rational utility maximization analysis. The point was just that it’s consistent with general overconfidence/miscalibration we observe in people in many other areas, even under the unfavorable assumptions thomblake gave.
ETA: Note that I said the incentives explain the numerous people who compete, not that the incentives justify such action. Also, I said it was “disproportionate motive force”. And no, I didn’t edit the original post just so it would have all that. :-P