(Coherence aside, when I now look at that number it does seem a bit too high, and I feel tempted to move it to 2027-2028, but I dunno, that kind of intuition is likely to change quickly from day to day.)
Aren’t a lot of compute-growth trends likely to run out of room before 2026? If so, a bump before 2026 could make sense. (Though less so if we think compute is unlikely to be the bottleneck for TAI – I don’t know to what degree people see the chinchilla insight as a significant update here.)
(Coherence aside, when I now look at that number it does seem a bit too high, and I feel tempted to move it to 2027-2028, but I dunno, that kind of intuition is likely to change quickly from day to day.)
Aren’t a lot of compute-growth trends likely to run out of room before 2026? If so, a bump before 2026 could make sense. (Though less so if we think compute is unlikely to be the bottleneck for TAI – I don’t know to what degree people see the chinchilla insight as a significant update here.)