You mention that you’re surprised to have not seen “more vigorous commercialization of language models” recently beyond mere “novelty”. Can you say more about what particular applications you had in mind? Also, do you consider AI companionship as useful or merely novel?
I expect the first killer app that goes mainstream will mark the PONR, i.e. the final test of whether the market prefers capabilities or safety.
Can you say more about what particular applications you had in mind?
Stuff like personal assistants who write emails / do simple shopping, coding assistants that people are more excited about than they seem to be about Codex, etc.
(Like I said in the main post, I’m not totally sure what PONR refers to, but don’t think I agree that the first lucrative application marks a PONR—seems like there are a bunch of things you can do after that point, including but not limited to alignment research.)
Something like AI Dungeon but not so niche, like for emails. People paying money to outsource a part of their creative intellect is what appears significant to me.
Protein folding is already a killer app, and biology looks to benefit a lot from this. Draw your own conclusions from whether it’s a good or bad thing for safety:
You mention that you’re surprised to have not seen “more vigorous commercialization of language models” recently beyond mere “novelty”. Can you say more about what particular applications you had in mind? Also, do you consider AI companionship as useful or merely novel?
I expect the first killer app that goes mainstream will mark the PONR, i.e. the final test of whether the market prefers capabilities or safety.
Stuff like personal assistants who write emails / do simple shopping, coding assistants that people are more excited about than they seem to be about Codex, etc.
(Like I said in the main post, I’m not totally sure what PONR refers to, but don’t think I agree that the first lucrative application marks a PONR—seems like there are a bunch of things you can do after that point, including but not limited to alignment research.)
Well, the first killer app is biology and protein folding.
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/8/3/23288843/deepmind-alphafold-artificial-intelligence-biology-drugs-medicine-demis-hassabis
What would you roughly expect such a killer app to look like?
Something like AI Dungeon but not so niche, like for emails. People paying money to outsource a part of their creative intellect is what appears significant to me.
I’m already doing that with my friends, one of whom is a musician who I’ve provided AI-generated album covers for.
Protein folding is already a killer app, and biology looks to benefit a lot from this. Draw your own conclusions from whether it’s a good or bad thing for safety:
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/8/3/23288843/deepmind-alphafold-artificial-intelligence-biology-drugs-medicine-demis-hassabis