Oh, it’s less general than that—it’s worse for political forecasting specifically. Other kinds of prediction (e.g. will this box fit under this table?), thinking for yourself is often one of the better options.
But, you know, political forecasting is one of the things we often care about. So knowing rules of thumb like “trust the experts, but not very much” is quite helpful.
Oh, it’s less general than that—it’s worse for political forecasting specifically. Other kinds of prediction (e.g. will this box fit under this table?), thinking for yourself is often one of the better options.
But, you know, political forecasting is one of the things we often care about. So knowing rules of thumb like “trust the experts, but not very much” is quite helpful.