Michael Rooney: I don’t think Eliezer is saying that it’s invalid to say “I don’t know.” He’s saying it’s invalid to have as your position “I should not have a position.”
The analogy of betting only means that every action you take will have consequences. For example, the decision not to try to assign a probability to the statement that Xinwei has a string in his pocket will have some butterfly effect. You have recognized this, and have also recognized that you don’t care, and have taken the position that it doesn’t matter. The key here is that, as you admit, you have taken a position.
Michael Rooney: I don’t think Eliezer is saying that it’s invalid to say “I don’t know.” He’s saying it’s invalid to have as your position “I should not have a position.”
The analogy of betting only means that every action you take will have consequences. For example, the decision not to try to assign a probability to the statement that Xinwei has a string in his pocket will have some butterfly effect. You have recognized this, and have also recognized that you don’t care, and have taken the position that it doesn’t matter. The key here is that, as you admit, you have taken a position.