Any forecasts of any number of experts in any domain out of normal distribution (where you do not need experts, you need statistics) are worth of nothing and do worse than coinflip (in binary outcomes). You cannot predict anything in more or less complex systems except that they will change suddenly at some point of time.
(may I pls do not write IMO every time, because all I write is not truth, but only my opinion) ))
Any forecasts of any number of experts in any domain out of normal distribution (where you do not need experts, you need statistics) are worth of nothing and do worse than coinflip (in binary outcomes). You cannot predict anything in more or less complex systems except that they will change suddenly at some point of time.
(may I pls do not write IMO every time, because all I write is not truth, but only my opinion) ))