The problem with rhetorical questions is they can be answered in ways that don’t support your argument:
“18 Now I ask, is this faith? Behold, I say unto you, Nay; for if a man knoweth a thing he hath no cause to believe, for he knoweth it.
19 And now, how much more cursed is he that knoweth the will of God and doeth it not, than he that only believeth, or only hath cause to believe, and falleth into transgression?” Alma 32:18-19
I put my keys down when I came into the house—in a sense I know they’re with the gun and the wallet and if I turn my head slightly to one side I’ll see them. Of course someone may have crept up on me and moved them. I do not—in the strongest possible sense of the concept ‘know’ that my keys are there.
Everything beneath that strongest possible sense of knowledge, however, is simply talking about degrees of more or less well justified belief. So what’s being asked in Alma 32:18 produces a positive answer: Of course I believe that which I know. My well justified beliefs are held much more strongly than less well justified beliefs.
Which makes of 32:19 something almost completely meaningless. Believing, having cause to believe, is simply what knowledge is. You’re essentially asking how much greater X is than X. To which the answer is, ‘Not at all. X is the same as X.’
In all honesty a god, or someone operating under divine revelation, would know how these things evaluated. He would have expressed himself properly.
Your argument only makes sense if you are a Bayesian that denies the whole idea of knowledge built off of axioms. Which is funny because Bayes theorem is built off of a set of well defined axioms. How do you know Bayes theorem is true outside of the axioms that it is built off of?
Anyways, change it to degrees of confidence such that knowledge is something like 90% and faith is anything below that. Or whatever critical values you wish to use.
Alright. I’m happy enough being a Mormon with proof that only makes you right somewhere around 90% of the time. Cough up.
Resetting confidence levels is a dangerous game for any person to play with their beliefs. You’ve said I can set it wherever I like. Fine, I choose to set it such that greater than or equal to fifty one percent confidence will be knowledge of some degree, rather than faith.
Do you see the consequences here? I’ve just reduced the chance that any aspect of your canon and testimony is actually correct to the odds of a coin flip. If you accept those boundaries, then you can’t use the book of Mormon or divine testimony or anything like that as something any more substantial than a coin flip to guide your decisions or beliefs. It’s essentially admitting that you’d be just as well off using a gambler’s dice to guide your life.
There’s a tension in fiddling with confidence levels like this. Between meaning and proof. If you want an empty faith – then that’s very easy to have without obligating yourself to any sort of evidence, but it’s not clear there’s anything there to believe in. However, if you want to preserve that sort of meaning then you’ve got to select confidence levels in excess of fifty percent and retain those as faith and that obligates you to some sort of proof.
And, by the by: this all works whether or not you’re a pure Bayesian. Axioms are true simply by virtue of the rules of the system. They are true in every possible world where the system in which they’re constructed can be made to apply. To the truth state of an axiom it doesn’t matter whether god will provide testimony or not.
If you think knowledge only comes from axioms - (or is built purely on axioms) - then in offering some prediction as being fulfilled you’re not being asked for anything that would qualify as knowledge. It’s not even clear under such a construction that you’re being asked for anything that would qualify as evidence of a particular axiom.
Of course the minute you start saying that the evidence does matter to the truth states it ceases to be an axiom; for all that the formula may itself contain or wrest on axioms.
Put it this way, if you think that there is a 1% probability (e.g. you are convinced it is bogus) that I am right in stating that if taken seriously God will answer prayers as from the scriptures I provided and this is enough to get you to try out what they say then that was sufficient faith in that instance. Clearly at 1% probability you shouldn’t be doing anything else that comes with believing in the Book of Mormon or being LDS (at least that doesn’t already coincide with what you think of as being right).
If you follow through and get evidence to boost the Book of Mormon to say 70 or 80% level then that should likewise boost the level confidence of what the book says to do to high enough to test them out. Following what the book says and finding it to be right should then boost the level, eventually at least, to whatever you have preset as your critical value to say you know it to be true.
If however one waits until they have evidence to suggest something is true with ones preset critical value then one is not acting in faith. If one has evidence at that level and then doesn’t follow the commands of God then one is worse off then someone that thinks it is bogus but has had someone tell them it isn’t or someone that due to everything else thinks it has 51% chance to be right.
That doesn’t seem consistent with part of the earlier verse you posted.
‘[I]f a man knoweth a thing he hath no cause to believe, for he knoweth it.’
Under the account you’re offering faith and knowledge are just different degrees of belief – indeed under that account knowledge is the type of belief with the most cause behind it. Whereas under the account in the verse knowledge and belief seem to be completely different kinds of thing.
If you want to call different degrees of confidence faith and knowledge, I don’t really mind – the probabilities are what they are regardless of the labels you hang off them—but it doesn’t seem to be doing any work that gets you closer to the conclusion you’ve decided on. You haven’t illustrated any difference beyond the claim that at some point of arbitrarily selected confidence it’s going to become worse for us if we don’t follow the relevant commandments.
Which is fine as far as it goes I suppose – why doesn’t god provide whatever portion of the evidence doesn’t quite tip me over that vital point yet preserves enough meaning to actually be evidence?
It strikes me the answer is going to have to be along the lines of ‘The more sure you are the more liable you are.’ But then the degree of confidence is a measure of degrees of knowledge and you’ve lost that sharp divide that seems to be required for you to make meaning and faith coexist (i.e. being more sure of the religion’s groundings than of a fair coin flip). The objection that I couldn’t know because then I wouldn’t believe would become rather meaningless – all meaningful faith would be based primarily on some form of knowledge.
why doesn’t god provide whatever portion of the evidence doesn’t quite tip me over that vital point yet preserves enough meaning to actually be evidence?
It is my understanding that He does.
’The more sure you are the more liable you are
yep.
all meaningful faith would be based primarily on some form of knowledge.
Which it is. An experience once provided does give knowledge of the thing, however it is possible to doubt your experiences. Also, the experiences only provide knowledge of one thing and there will remain many things that are not known with the same surety, some of which may be difficult to understand, and these things must be taken on faith until they too become known.
arbitrarily selected confidence it’s going to become worse for us if we don’t follow the relevant commandments.
I would think that it is a continuum such that someone totally unaware of anything about the subject is not liable for anything while those that have received knowledge of everything are liable for all of it.
Confidence in something not tested is faith. Anything not known with whatever level of confidence constitutes near enough to certainty to not matter for you is taken on faith. Knowledge is anything that is known with that level of confidence to constitute certainty. I am pretty sure that is a consistent translation of the terms into something understandable in this setting, I could be wrong.
If you’re right in respect to the prophesies of Thomas S. Monson, I don’t see how this could hold. They would be strong evidence.
In any case I think, we’ve got the chunks to start doing some building.
All meaningful faith would be based primarily on some form of knowledge.
Which it is.
But.
Knowledge is anything that is known with that level of confidence to constitute certainty.
Also known things are knowledge. You seem to be invoking, admittedly with some degree of displacement, the term in its own description.
Confidence in something not tested is faith.
To a degree – if you’re going to build knowledge into the meaningfulness of faith then faith would be something like believing with a greater certainty than the evidence justifies. Since all faith would be tested to some extent, even if very weakly, in order to contain meaning.
The problem with that approach is that it never seems necessary for me to believe beyond the evidence. If I put, say, one percent confidence on the idea of god based upon things I see then that’s not faith – and if I get more evidence from investigating based on that one percent and believe it to be slightly more likely – do some more investigation and get more… it never becomes faith; it’s testing / knowledge all the way up.
You seem to be invoking, admittedly with some degree of displacement, the term in its own description.
I know, probably should be changed to “anything that is held to be true with such a level of confidence so as to not make any difference from 100%”. That removes the term but doesn’t seem to change the meaning.
faith would be something like believing with a greater certainty than the evidence justifies
hmm. That would certainly be faith but it doesn’t fit exactly with how it is used in, say “Lectures on Faith”. The confidence is the faith, it really is that broad of a concept.
If faith is just another word for confidence then knowledge would just be a high degree of faith and that doesn’t fit in with how it’s used in the Book; where it’s held that if you know you don’t have faith/believe.
If you keep using knowledge to mean a very high degree of confidence and maintain that all meaningful faith is based on knowledge—and not just in the sense of exceeding the level of confidence that evidence justifies—then I’m not sure how it’s possible for meaningful faith to exist.
Since:
If it meets the level of confidence that the knowledge justifies, then it’s not faith. And if it exceeds the level of confidence that evidence justifies then it doesn’t fit how it’s used in “Lectures on Faith”. And I take it just as a given that faith is not to believe /less/ than the evidence justifies—especially with 1 John 4:1 commanding people to test their prophets.
Knowledge would be certainty. However, this site works with the assumption that certainty is impossible so I am trying to get everything to work under that assumption.
I am looking at my computer right now so I am certain it exists were I to look away I would be slightly less certain of its existence. That difference in certainty of the current existence of the computer seems to constitute faith as used in scripture and lectures on faith. However, I am still certain that the computer did exist while I was looking at it even if I am not looking at it currently, I know it existed then (I would say that my degree of certainty of it currently existing would still constitute knowledge, but as used it would seem to be in some sense faith).
According to this site I can not say that I know with certainty that I am male. I wonder what the confidence level is that I exist or that you exist. I have seen examples of saying that one can not be certain of the prime numbers or of 1+1=2. To me all these things are certainties, I know them even if in reproducing that knowledge to an outside observer I might err in doing so. This is what I mean by knowledge, if you can come up with a better way of explaining it in terms of this site where there is no certainty other then what I have explained then please do so.
This is what I mean by knowledge, if you can come up with a better way of explaining it in terms of this site where there is no certainty other then what I have explained then please do so.
You seem to be meaning two things by knowledge, depending on the context in which you use it. I would suggest that you might find it easier if you use the words ‘information’ or ‘evidence’ when talking about justifications for a level of confidence/faith. And only use ‘knowledge’ to signify whatever high degree of confidence you’ve decided to use as your cut-off point for hands-in-fire-get-burned, I’m-looking-at-the-computer-and-it’s-still-there levels of certainty.
It still seems to me that you’re going to end up with problems if you hold faith as being another word for confidence. Since even certainty (100% confidence) is still a degree of confidence – and also knowledge under such a definition. But scripture holds that knowledge isn’t faith – which is the same as saying if you hold that faith and confidence are synonymous – that knowledge isn’t a degree of confidence (even 100% confidence).
It seems to me to be a deeper problem than one of definitions.
You’re going to have problems if you say that faith just refers to the preceding 99.9 recurring % levels of confidence, too. You’ve said that it’s a general enough idea, in “Lectures on Faith”, to just be taken as a synonymous term with confidence. But even putting that problem aside, when you wanted to start talking about scripture again I suspect you’d end up saying either, ‘People don’t believe that which they know.’ Or, ‘People don’t believe that which they have faith in.’
But belief isn’t one of those fuzzy terms, like knowledge or faith. The meaning can’t be altered to fit a particular argument without doing significant damage to the network of references into which it fits. If I say I believe my computer is in front of me while I’m typing on it, (which going by your standards would also be knowledge,) then there’s no significant question what I mean. Just as it’s coherent for me to say that I believe my front door is locked, when strictly speaking I’ve heard one of the other occupants of the building come in and do not know if they locked the door. You might ask how strongly I believe it, but it’s coherent for me to answer that in degrees of doubt/confidence; even to the point of saying that I have no doubt.
If you start saying that belief means something else to patch the problem in the epistemology, then you’re going to have to explain how that new definition is coherent with all the other instances of its use. And that will alter more, even more well defined, meanings to do that which you’re going to have to redefine along with everything that hooks onto those instances… and so on until eventually you’ve defined everything in terms of whether it makes your theology right. It doesn’t seem to be a workable approach.
what do you mean by meaningful faith?
Better odds than the chance a similarly but non-testimony privileged observer has. Or to put it another way whether the faith adds any information. (With non-adding faith being meaningless.)
Take the coin-flip example:
If we were to say that somehow divine testimony could predict the outcome of a coin flip. (Not that I’m saying it can but if it could—or someone claimed it could.) You might get three groups – in separate rooms – and one group would commune with god and score down their predictions, and the other two groups would flip coins. And you’d see what the difference between the god group and one of the coin flipping groups was as compared to the difference between the two coin flipping groups. Do it a few hundred times to get the errors down to whatever you’d decided the noise level was and see whether the faith group was more reliable.
If at the end of all that you didn’t have a higher degree of confidence in the predictions of divinity than those of a coin flip, then – assuming that was all the evidence you had for god – you may as well use the coin flip to dictate your actions. The faith wouldn’t add any information, it wouldn’t hook onto the world you were experiencing.
You could do the same sort of thing with the more day to day predictions of prophets from the Church but you’d need to compare them against experts in whatever field the prediction was being made in since the real world provides more information than they’d have in the coin flip case. The advantage of the coin flip is that there are fewer confounding variables more than anything else.
meaning two things by knowledge, depending on the context in which you use it.
I think you are right in this assessment.
when you wanted to start talking about scripture again I suspect you’d end up saying either, ‘People don’t believe that which they know.’ Or, ‘People don’t believe that which they have faith in.’
??? - you lost me here. Why would I end up saying that people don’t believe that which they know? Why would I have to redefine belief?
You could do the same sort of thing with the more day to day predictions of prophets from the Church but you’d need to compare them against experts in whatever field the prediction was being made in since the real world provides more information than they’d have in the coin flip case
Take the Word of Wisdom for instance the experts in the health fields are still not able to agree as to whether coffee, tea, and alcohol are good or bad for you in the long run. The LDS Church however has consistently said they were. If the revelations from God are correct then one would expect that those that follow the revelations would be healthier than similar populations, which is indeed the case. Is this the type of thing that you mean?
Why would I end up saying that people don’t believe that which they know?
Alma 32:18
[I]f a man knoweth a thing he hath no cause to believe, for he knoweth it.
But if knowledge was just a belief with 100% confidence, then that you knew it would mean you had quite a few causes to believe it.
I suppose you could also end up saying that knowledge was uncaused belief but that seems even more problematic
Take the Word of Wisdom for instance the experts in the health fields are still not able to agree as to whether coffee, tea, and alcohol are good or bad for you in the long run.
I’m not surprised, risk profiles don’t tend to reduce to a substance being absolutely good or bad for you. It depends on your genetics and the interaction of various chemicals in the drink, not all of which have linear relationships with consumption.
So far as coffee goes, broadly speaking, the consensus among the experts—i.e. those publishing studies into the effects of coffee—seems to indicate that consumption beneath four cups a day has more health benefits than risks, unless you happen to have gastro intestinal problems or need iron supplements. Paper filters seem to reduce risks even further.
Tea seems to be okay as long as you don’t put milk with it or drink it while it’s incredibly hot. Or drink stupid amounts, of course.
Alcohol? Well one or two drinks seems to be linked to reduced mortality—at least in the UK. The French seem to do well with it, though it may just be because of their diets. Heavy consumption does seem to be very bad for you.
The LDS Church however has consistently said they were. If the revelations from God are correct then one would expect that those that follow the revelations would be healthier than similar populations, which is indeed the case. Is this the type of thing that you mean?
In principle, yeah. I don’t think the WoW is very strong evidence by itself because there are loads of other possible explanations for health variances, and depending on the rationale the range of likely guesses may not have been all that wide, and because, IIRC, it was originally hot drinks in general which was changed later on when it became untenable; but it’s the right sort of thing, yeah.
If LDS’s prophets consistently make better predictions than experts, then they’ve probably got access to some sort of privileged information to narrow their range of answers down. Either that or they’re just vastly more rational than the experts, but the odds of that are slim.
Alma 32:18 [I]f a man knoweth a thing he hath no cause to believe, for he knoweth it. But if knowledge was just a belief with 100% confidence, then that you knew it would mean you had quite a few causes to believe it.
I always took it to mean that if one knows something one has no cause to doubt it.
Belief as defined at dictionary.com does work with saying that one does not believe something one knows, being if a statement has proof then one does not believe it (see # 2).
It seems to be using belief-in as opposed to belief-that. If not then you are right that my definition of knowledge doesn’t work.
it was originally hot drinks in general which was changed later on when it became untenable
It appears to have been clarified in July of 1833 when the revelation was given in February of 1833.
Close enough to 100% that it makes no practical difference.
That doesn’t seem to leave you any better off though. Which, yes, I assumed you’d seen. If the level of confidence you wish to select is to be high—perhaps even very high—before faith becomes knowledge, then the level of proof you can offer without destroying faith will be almost equally high. Even if we go all the way out to 100% you’ve just taken on a greater burden of proof.
This isn’t some abstract thing. We should be able to sit you down in a room with a fair coin—or some other thing that can be relatively easily measured—and have you call it. See what statistic it approaches—how God does against blind chance. If knowledge is to be 70% confidence and god only calls it 69% of the time that 1% difference preserves your faith. The same for whatever level of confidence you select. The only way the objection offered in Alma makes any sort of sense is if there is no such difference with which to preserve faith.
We should be able to sit you down in a room with a fair coin—or some other thing that can be relatively easily measured—and have you call it.
If I were claiming to be psychic or something then maybe. You have pretty much the same opportunity to try this out using the given method as I do. However, what makes you think that God is willing to play such a game? He isn’t a genie or oracle that grants every random wish. I could be wrong but I doubt He would be care to be treated so lightly.
. If knowledge is to be 70% confidence and god only calls it 69% of the time that 1% difference preserves your faith.
Um, I think you have the wrong idea on the type of confidence we are talking about. If we did such a coin toss experiment and the person trying to communicate with God got it right 69% of the time that would give a much greater than 69% estimate to the existence of said God. That is getting 69% of all coin tosses right over a very large subset of coin tosses should lead one to first check to make sure that the coin is a fair coin, then lead one to use a different coin even if it is, and then lead one to try and eliminate all other possible explanations, and if it is still 69% of the time right then one should a) believe fairly highly in however the person is getting that information and b) take that person gambling or have that person pick stocks for you (or figure out how to do it yourself) before publishing any results of the study.
However, what makes you think that God is willing to play such a game? He isn’t a genie or oracle that grants every random wish. I could be wrong but I doubt He would be care to be treated so lightly.
Providing solid evidence is the only way to reach people who don’t believe things without evidence. Some sort of effort in that direction would be expected of someone benevolent towards these people who predicts that this belief would be valuable. That’s the way it seems to me at least.
A prophecy counts as evidence of privileged information insofar as it generates accurate predictions. Generally it doesn’t, by itself, tell us much about the source of that privileged information, but the circumstances surrounding its creation might imply some intelligence worth updating on.
On the other hand, essentially all of the prophecies—regardless of their source—that I’m aware of are unfulfilled, unverifiable, vague or ambiguous enough to have no predictive value, or outright fraudulent. Now, I’ll be happy to update if the Rapture happens on May 21 as the billboards lining my commute keep insisting, but I’m not holding my breath.
To begin with the Rapture as understood by the evangelicals will never happen. Therefore, it will not happen on May 21. I seriously doubt saying that will increase anyone’s estimation of my religion.
I have provided specific examples of prophecy that have been fulfilled. I am also able to provide more if it is so desired.
If I were claiming to be psychic or something then maybe. You have pretty much the same opportunity to try this out using the given method as I do.
I already know it doesn’t work for me. Perhaps I wasn’t taking it seriously enough – whatever that means.
However, what makes you think that God is willing to play such a game? He isn’t a genie or oracle that grants every random wish. I could be wrong but I doubt He would be care to be treated so lightly.
You have a god that reveals his existence to guide his followers on matters of relatively minuscule importance but won’t reveal his existence to save someone’s immortal soul? He’s already playing the game. His values may be very different to our own but he’s playing. (Assuming of course he exists.)
I don’t think it’s treating him lightly either. Some kid tells you they’re a god you just smile and nod, some adult say it you ask them demonstrate some suitably implausible power. When you take something seriously you test it. Generally the more seriously you take something the more you test it – resources allowing – not less.
Treating him lightly would be dancing off to believe in some random god because I got the warm fuzzies when I went to a church/mosque/whatever, or because of what I read in some book.
It’s not like he’s being asked to do it as a parlour trick. It’s not random either – it’s for a purpose. Someone’s immortal soul may or may not be in jeopardy.
Um, I think you have the wrong idea on the type of confidence we are talking about.
I think so too. Whatever calls would give you a 69% confidence then.
He’s already playing the game. His values may be very different to our own but he’s playing.
Ok, agreed.
kid tells you they’re a god
I assume you mean there is a god?
Treating him lightly would be dancing off to believe in some random god because I got the warm fuzzies when I went to a church/mosque/whatever, or because of what I read in some book.
Also agreed.
he’s being asked to do it as a parlour trick
This is what I was assuming you were asking to have happen.
I am working on a longer response now that I have a better understanding of what it is you are requesting.
As to the most recent specific prophecies from the living prophet Thomas S. Monson so far I have come up with this:
There remain, however, areas of the world where our influence is limited and where we are not allowed to share the gospel freely. As did President Spencer W. Kimball over 32 years ago, I urge you to pray for the opening of those areas, that we might share with them the joy of the gospel. As we prayed then in response to President Kimball’s pleadings, we saw miracles unfold as country after country, formerly closed to the Church, was opened. Such will transpire again as we pray with faith.
Thomas S Monson, President of the Church, October 2008
The fall of Communism in Europe was what opened up those countries. It to me therefore seems that President Monson was prophesying the current unrest in the dictatorships throughout the world and that this will eventually allow for LDS missionaries to enter some of those countries. As the missionaries are not currently in any of the countries (nor is the unrest overwith) this is one that we should be able to watch develop.
Plus the prophecy that there will be more temples built. Further revelation given is such things as the calling of a new apostle, the calling of missionaries, and other adminstrative things which while important to the Church I doubt anyone outside of the Church cares (excluding some ex-mormons (along with some social mormons that don’t understand the doctrine) that are really upset over Prop. 8 and the reaffirming the Churches stance against homosexual behaviors, which they really should have known anyways).
I have previously listed some of the other prophecies that have come true as well as some other prophecies that to me seem very specific. I can try finding more but in the end it will almost always be possible to say that “my idol did it” or anyone could have known that or “Some things they may have guessed right, among so many; but behold, we know that all these great and marvelous works cannot come to pass, of which has been spoken” or other such things. I am very much of the opinion that signs, prophecies, and miracles will not and should not provide sufficient evidence to convince someone without they themselves asking God to know if it is true. They should, however, provide evidence enough to begin to act and to be willing to test things out.
I do know of another precedure that is empirical but it is asking a lot more of people. Also, I am not asking for donations to my church, as I explain:
Malachi 3:10: “Bring ye all the tithes into the storehouse … and prove me now herewith, saith the Lord of hosts, if I will not open you the windows of heaven, and pour you out a blessing, that there shall not be room enough to recieve it”. Here is what I am actually suggesting, find some organization or charity that you beleive to be good and give that organization 10% of your income (measured however you think is honest with yourself) track your expenditures, your income, and net worth over the course of a year and then at the end of the year of so doing evaluate your situation, see if God followed through on His promise. If you believe that SIAI is a good organization then donate to them. I don’t care who you donate it to as long as you believe it to be a good worthwhile cause, therefore if you don’t think my church is true then please don’t donate to it, as I doubt it will be effective if you do.
You should look at information gain when evaulating the strength of a prophecy. For instance, “closed countries will become open at some point in the future.” Assume this requires a major change in government, then look at the expected rate of major government change—I’m going to make a guess of a 2% chance per year. After 14 years (1976-1990), observing a government change major enough to open a country gives you around 2 bits of information.
That means this “prophecy” is approximately as impressive as prophecying correctly that a fair coin will come up heads twice.
Even if you read the prophecies with no bias whatsoever, if you’re charitable enough to forgive 3 failures for each 1 amazingly correct prediction, the prophet cannot lose.
Some of the nations were opened up before 1990. Further, this is not saying one country opened up but many. Perhaps you are not aware that in 1976 it appeared as though communism would last forever and saying not just one but that all of Soviet bloc would not be communist in 14 years was viewed as an impossibility.
if you’re charitable enough to forgive 3 failures for each 1 amazingly correct prediction, the prophet cannot lose.
I’m not familiar enough with the publications of the LDS church to list any. Reading the linked speech, “opening new areas” did seem to be the only thing one could fairly call a prediction. Perhaps there are no unfulfilled predictions in the historical records.
More likely, perhaps most prophecies had different possibilities for information gain; even that prophecy--1 major government change every 50 years was just a guess, although the single government change in the USSR was the proximate cause of each country’s opening.
But all I really meant to say is that a prophecy is not a boolean quantity, but a point on a continuum from correctly predicting “the sun will rise tomorrow” to correctly predicting “the sun will not rise tomorrow.” Before treating a prophecy as evidence for any particular properties of the prophet or the prophet’s sponsor, you should locate it on that continuum.
hmm.. looks like it will be multiple comments as it is too long.
won’t reveal his existence to save someone’s immortal soul?
Some of this I will have already covered in other responses, I hope it is okay if I cover it again.
I think the best place to begin is to explain what the purpose of life is and then go from there. That is, there are reasons God operates the way He does and they are directly related to why we are here on Earth. It will seem round about and I am sorry for that, I can’t think of a shorter way to answer that would communicate the necessary information.
First, Gods goal for us is “to bring to pass the immortality and eternal life of man”. That is we are here to gain a body (in case anyone is wondering, you have succeeded at that part) and to qualify to return to the presence of God which will allow us to become gods ourselves (Joint-Heirs with Christ). Therefore the goal is to have us obtain the same state of power and knowledge that God has and just as we do not wish to give god-like power to an AI that is then going to screw things up so too God does not wish to do the same to us.
Previous to this life we lived in the presence God being His sons and daughters and we knew, as we could see him, saw the power he had, and had sufficient understanding to know, that He was God and what was right. Even in this state of knowledge 1⁄3 of all of God’s children fell, they rebelled against God and were cast out into Hell (for simplicities sake I will use the term Hell, it isn’t entirely accurate to do so but the purpose isn’t to give you a complete understanding of all the details), forever. Those of us who get born on Earth did not fall but followed what was right when we knew for a surety that it was right.
Due to the fact that we did not fall we receive bodies and even after we die will again receive our bodies to no more part from them in the resurrection. This is what is meant by immortality and it is a free gift to all.
As to eternal life it is up to us on earth to live according to what we know to be right. Not what we wish was right but what we actually know to be right. This is primarily what we will be judged on. However, with the exception of Christ no one has perfectly lived according to what they know the right things to do are. We all fail and we all know that we fail, many when they so fail try to redefine what is right so that it appears to them that they have not failed but God knows their hearts and they can not fool him, or in the end themselves. Due to this state of failure, or sin, to follow what we know to be right we become unworthy of entering back into the presence of God.
This is where Christ comes in, He is our savior and able to wipe away our sins such that we can again be clean. For this to happen requires one to be baptized in the correct manner by the correct authority. After baptism one receives the companionship of the Holy Spirit to assist in making correct decisions, however one is still mortal and fallen and thus will still err regularly and so must regularly repent and renew the covenants made to obtain forgiveness again.
To obtain eternal life one must accept baptism while still alive, or at the first available opportunity when dead. That is, it does matter when one is baptized if one has heard the gospel sufficiently to have a high degree of confidence in its validity while still alive, if not then after death is fine. Refusing to hear more with the sole purpose so as to not have a that high degree of confidence (and thus not be required to change ones behaviors) is an action that demonstrates a sufficient degree of confidence for the penalty to apply
. After baptism following the commandments is required to maintain the state of grace. Everyone will have a chance to be baptized (and the other saving ordinances) whether in life or after death, this is what most of the work in the temples is.
In the final state we can end up in a variety of places, if we obtain a perfect knowledge and then reject everything then we end up cast out with those that rebelled at the beginning. Contrary to popular opinion, this is a state that will eventually be available to everyone to choose as we will all be brought back into a state of perfect knowledge and thus will again have the opportunity to reject it. If we never even tried to do what we knew to be right but accepted and reveled in our sins then we end up in the Telestial Kingdom, which is comparable to life on Earth but perfected so as to be a heaven. If we attempted to do what was right but for a variety of reasons did not accept baptism when we had the chance then we will end up in Terrestrial Kingdom, which is pretty much what is described when people are commonly describing the christian view of heaven (being no family units but a state of great happiness). The Celestial Kingdom is where God dwells and those that obtain it have eternal life, those that obtain it and are in a married family unit obtain the state of godhood called exaltation.
From all of this it should be clear that your immortal soul, while at stake, is not in any particular danger from God not revealing Himself to you. If you are trying to do what you know to be right then you have lost nothing. If you aren’t trying to do what you know to be right then revealing himself to you could very well get you cast out, which is not what God is in the business of doing. He has provided sufficient evidence to suggest His existence while not casting out those that choose to not believe in the evidence provided. More evidence will be provided in the future as things get worse in the world, but until near the end it will continue to be such that many honest people that are trying to do what is right will not have to know the truth.
Warm fuzzies may or may not be a manifestation of the Spirit. It is often described as a still small voice or a burning sensation within (not a bad burning sensation, that is probably heart burn or something). It should be in both your mind and in your heart, being thoughts and feelings. This is the primary way with which God communicates with us as it testifies of the truth and lets us know what is right. It is also easily drowned out by other emotions and feelings and easily confused with other things (uncontrollable crying, a sense of community, trances, babelling incoherently, a sense of confusion are common things mistaken for the spirit) . There are a variety of other means of communication but all of them should be accompanied by this feeling of the Spirit (angels, visions, burning bush, talking donkey, dreams are some examples from the Bible of other means of communication (if I ever have a donkey or pretty much any other animal talk to me my first reaction will be to assume I had eaten something really bad or that I was crazy and either way need to seek medical attention, but it is there))
If you are trying to do what you know to be right then you have lost nothing. If you aren’t trying to do what you know to be right then revealing himself to you could very well get you cast out, which is not what God is in the business of doing.
So why has he revealed himself even at a low level of confidence? People supposedly already know right from wrong so that’s not it.
If his revealing himself helps people to do right rather than wrong more than it imperils them, then in his not revealing himself to me I have lost something. (It’s less probable that I will do right and thus I have been imperilled.) If he helps at a particular level of confidence less than he imperils then it doesn’t make sense for him to reveal himself to anyone. If they’re equal then there’s no purpose in it.
Assorted thoughts on the rest:
That is, there are reasons God operates the way He does and they are directly related to why we are here on Earth.
Eh, there’s a tension between power and justification. If you take it to the extreme, omnipotence and reason are mutually exclusive criteria. (Outside, perhaps, of an inability to commit logical contradictions, but that doesn’t really seem to be involved here.)
Therefore the goal is to have us obtain the same state of power and knowledge that God has and just as we do not wish to give god-like power to an AI that is then going to screw things up so too God does not wish to do the same to us.
I’d be more than happy to give symmetrical power to an AI, assuming I had godly powers. The whole issue is that a recursively improving AI might become far more powerful than ourselves.
Those of us who get born on Earth did not fall but followed what was right when we knew for a surety that it was right.
Why do we need to qualify to return if we followed him and didn’t fall?
Due to this state of failure, or sin, to follow what we know to be right we become unworthy of entering back into the presence of God.
Above you said we were here to gain a body and to qualify to return to the presence of God. However, if we become unworthy of returning to God that removes a lot of the reason for being here. Why not be embodied and immediately die? The purpose of life then having been completed.
As to eternal life it is up to us on earth to live according to what we know to be right. Not what we wish was right but what we actually know to be right.
You’ve already said knowledge is an incredibly high degree of confidence – indeed you’ve said that it’s practically indistinguishable from certainty—which you’ve in turn tied to proof. I’ve seen no proof of right and wrong. A feeling certainly isn’t proof; asides from anything else I’ve felt different ways about ethical issues at different points in time. Then you have the cultural variances in preferences and emotions....
This is the primary way with which God communicates with us as it testifies of the truth and lets us know what is right. It is also easily drowned out by other emotions and feelings and easily confused with other things (uncontrollable crying, a sense of community, trances, babelling incoherently, a sense of confusion are common things mistaken for the spirit) .
Again you’ve tied knowledge to being a high degree of confidence. If it’s easily confused with other things then it doesn’t provide that high degree of confidence. It also has the same problems as communication in general concerning its purpose. If the value of the guidance of testimony is exceeded by the peril of knowing more then it shouldn’t be done. If the inverse holds then it should be done for everyone. If they’re equal then there’s no purpose in it one way or the other.
Did you not understand that the peril of knowledge is only if one does not follow what one knows? Knowledge is not something to be feared but to be sought after and this is true of all knowledge. Of course with knowledge comes responsibility to use that knowledge well and this is again true of all types of knowledge.
if we become unworthy of returning to God that removes a lot of the reason for being here. Why not be embodied and immediately die? The purpose of life then having been completed.
I actually had a discussion on Less Wrong already that covered this. The only purpose of life is not just to gain a body but also to see if we would choose to follow what is right. I do not know what the state of those that die before they are able to make such choices is except that they are saved and exalted. I see I did not explain that this life is for testing to see what we will do without the constant certainty we had before.
If his revealing himself helps people to do right rather than wrong more than it imperils them, then in his not revealing himself to me I have lost something.
This is a personal thing, if Him revealing Himself to you helps you to do right rather than wrong more than it imperils you then in His not revealing Himself to you, you would have lost something. The only way it would hurt more than help is if you were to listen and to not follow, just as the only way it would help more than hurt is if you were to listen and to follow.
I’d be more than happy to give symmetrical power to an AI, assuming I had godly powers.
Would you then be willing to entrust that AI with control of some world populated with billions of people?
If you take it to the extreme, omnipotence and reason are mutually exclusive criteria. (Outside, perhaps, of an inability to commit logical contradictions, but that doesn’t really seem to be involved here.)
We would need to precisely define omnipotence as it is often understood to be an nonsensical concept. Also, the type of omnipotence that God actually has (as understood by me, a Latter-Day Saint) is nothing like what other Christians claim He has.
There are more restrictions then just an inability to commit logical contradictions. If I have said something contradictory then please point it out so I can see if that is what I actually meant and if it is, if that is actually what the doctrine is.
I’ve seen no proof of right and wrong. A feeling certainly isn’t proof; asides from anything else I’ve felt different ways about ethical issues at different points in time.
This goes back to why God reveals Himself, so that we can find out what is actually right. If you are doing what is right to the best of your understanding and knowledge as it currently is then that is fine. If with a greater understanding things you thought were right turn out to have been wrong then you are not accountable for doing what was wrong if you actually thought it was right. The ability to judge what is right and wrong is given to everyone.
The problem with rhetorical questions is they can be answered in ways that don’t support your argument:
“18 Now I ask, is this faith? Behold, I say unto you, Nay; for if a man knoweth a thing he hath no cause to believe, for he knoweth it.
19 And now, how much more cursed is he that knoweth the will of God and doeth it not, than he that only believeth, or only hath cause to believe, and falleth into transgression?” Alma 32:18-19
I put my keys down when I came into the house—in a sense I know they’re with the gun and the wallet and if I turn my head slightly to one side I’ll see them. Of course someone may have crept up on me and moved them. I do not—in the strongest possible sense of the concept ‘know’ that my keys are there.
Everything beneath that strongest possible sense of knowledge, however, is simply talking about degrees of more or less well justified belief. So what’s being asked in Alma 32:18 produces a positive answer: Of course I believe that which I know. My well justified beliefs are held much more strongly than less well justified beliefs.
Which makes of 32:19 something almost completely meaningless. Believing, having cause to believe, is simply what knowledge is. You’re essentially asking how much greater X is than X. To which the answer is, ‘Not at all. X is the same as X.’
In all honesty a god, or someone operating under divine revelation, would know how these things evaluated. He would have expressed himself properly.
Your argument only makes sense if you are a Bayesian that denies the whole idea of knowledge built off of axioms. Which is funny because Bayes theorem is built off of a set of well defined axioms. How do you know Bayes theorem is true outside of the axioms that it is built off of?
Anyways, change it to degrees of confidence such that knowledge is something like 90% and faith is anything below that. Or whatever critical values you wish to use.
Alright. I’m happy enough being a Mormon with proof that only makes you right somewhere around 90% of the time. Cough up.
Resetting confidence levels is a dangerous game for any person to play with their beliefs. You’ve said I can set it wherever I like. Fine, I choose to set it such that greater than or equal to fifty one percent confidence will be knowledge of some degree, rather than faith.
Do you see the consequences here? I’ve just reduced the chance that any aspect of your canon and testimony is actually correct to the odds of a coin flip. If you accept those boundaries, then you can’t use the book of Mormon or divine testimony or anything like that as something any more substantial than a coin flip to guide your decisions or beliefs. It’s essentially admitting that you’d be just as well off using a gambler’s dice to guide your life.
There’s a tension in fiddling with confidence levels like this. Between meaning and proof. If you want an empty faith – then that’s very easy to have without obligating yourself to any sort of evidence, but it’s not clear there’s anything there to believe in. However, if you want to preserve that sort of meaning then you’ve got to select confidence levels in excess of fifty percent and retain those as faith and that obligates you to some sort of proof.
And, by the by: this all works whether or not you’re a pure Bayesian. Axioms are true simply by virtue of the rules of the system. They are true in every possible world where the system in which they’re constructed can be made to apply. To the truth state of an axiom it doesn’t matter whether god will provide testimony or not.
If you think knowledge only comes from axioms - (or is built purely on axioms) - then in offering some prediction as being fulfilled you’re not being asked for anything that would qualify as knowledge. It’s not even clear under such a construction that you’re being asked for anything that would qualify as evidence of a particular axiom.
Of course the minute you start saying that the evidence does matter to the truth states it ceases to be an axiom; for all that the formula may itself contain or wrest on axioms.
Put it this way, if you think that there is a 1% probability (e.g. you are convinced it is bogus) that I am right in stating that if taken seriously God will answer prayers as from the scriptures I provided and this is enough to get you to try out what they say then that was sufficient faith in that instance. Clearly at 1% probability you shouldn’t be doing anything else that comes with believing in the Book of Mormon or being LDS (at least that doesn’t already coincide with what you think of as being right).
If you follow through and get evidence to boost the Book of Mormon to say 70 or 80% level then that should likewise boost the level confidence of what the book says to do to high enough to test them out. Following what the book says and finding it to be right should then boost the level, eventually at least, to whatever you have preset as your critical value to say you know it to be true.
If however one waits until they have evidence to suggest something is true with ones preset critical value then one is not acting in faith. If one has evidence at that level and then doesn’t follow the commands of God then one is worse off then someone that thinks it is bogus but has had someone tell them it isn’t or someone that due to everything else thinks it has 51% chance to be right.
Does this make more sense to you?
That doesn’t seem consistent with part of the earlier verse you posted.
Under the account you’re offering faith and knowledge are just different degrees of belief – indeed under that account knowledge is the type of belief with the most cause behind it. Whereas under the account in the verse knowledge and belief seem to be completely different kinds of thing.
If you want to call different degrees of confidence faith and knowledge, I don’t really mind – the probabilities are what they are regardless of the labels you hang off them—but it doesn’t seem to be doing any work that gets you closer to the conclusion you’ve decided on. You haven’t illustrated any difference beyond the claim that at some point of arbitrarily selected confidence it’s going to become worse for us if we don’t follow the relevant commandments.
Which is fine as far as it goes I suppose – why doesn’t god provide whatever portion of the evidence doesn’t quite tip me over that vital point yet preserves enough meaning to actually be evidence?
It strikes me the answer is going to have to be along the lines of ‘The more sure you are the more liable you are.’ But then the degree of confidence is a measure of degrees of knowledge and you’ve lost that sharp divide that seems to be required for you to make meaning and faith coexist (i.e. being more sure of the religion’s groundings than of a fair coin flip). The objection that I couldn’t know because then I wouldn’t believe would become rather meaningless – all meaningful faith would be based primarily on some form of knowledge.
It is my understanding that He does.
yep.
Which it is. An experience once provided does give knowledge of the thing, however it is possible to doubt your experiences. Also, the experiences only provide knowledge of one thing and there will remain many things that are not known with the same surety, some of which may be difficult to understand, and these things must be taken on faith until they too become known.
I would think that it is a continuum such that someone totally unaware of anything about the subject is not liable for anything while those that have received knowledge of everything are liable for all of it.
Confidence in something not tested is faith. Anything not known with whatever level of confidence constitutes near enough to certainty to not matter for you is taken on faith. Knowledge is anything that is known with that level of confidence to constitute certainty. I am pretty sure that is a consistent translation of the terms into something understandable in this setting, I could be wrong.
If you’re right in respect to the prophesies of Thomas S. Monson, I don’t see how this could hold. They would be strong evidence.
In any case I think, we’ve got the chunks to start doing some building.
But.
Also known things are knowledge. You seem to be invoking, admittedly with some degree of displacement, the term in its own description.
To a degree – if you’re going to build knowledge into the meaningfulness of faith then faith would be something like believing with a greater certainty than the evidence justifies. Since all faith would be tested to some extent, even if very weakly, in order to contain meaning.
The problem with that approach is that it never seems necessary for me to believe beyond the evidence. If I put, say, one percent confidence on the idea of god based upon things I see then that’s not faith – and if I get more evidence from investigating based on that one percent and believe it to be slightly more likely – do some more investigation and get more… it never becomes faith; it’s testing / knowledge all the way up.
I know, probably should be changed to “anything that is held to be true with such a level of confidence so as to not make any difference from 100%”. That removes the term but doesn’t seem to change the meaning.
hmm. That would certainly be faith but it doesn’t fit exactly with how it is used in, say “Lectures on Faith”. The confidence is the faith, it really is that broad of a concept.
If faith is just another word for confidence then knowledge would just be a high degree of faith and that doesn’t fit in with how it’s used in the Book; where it’s held that if you know you don’t have faith/believe.
If you keep using knowledge to mean a very high degree of confidence and maintain that all meaningful faith is based on knowledge—and not just in the sense of exceeding the level of confidence that evidence justifies—then I’m not sure how it’s possible for meaningful faith to exist.
Since:
If it meets the level of confidence that the knowledge justifies, then it’s not faith. And if it exceeds the level of confidence that evidence justifies then it doesn’t fit how it’s used in “Lectures on Faith”. And I take it just as a given that faith is not to believe /less/ than the evidence justifies—especially with 1 John 4:1 commanding people to test their prophets.
what do you mean by meaningful faith?
Knowledge would be certainty. However, this site works with the assumption that certainty is impossible so I am trying to get everything to work under that assumption.
I am looking at my computer right now so I am certain it exists were I to look away I would be slightly less certain of its existence. That difference in certainty of the current existence of the computer seems to constitute faith as used in scripture and lectures on faith. However, I am still certain that the computer did exist while I was looking at it even if I am not looking at it currently, I know it existed then (I would say that my degree of certainty of it currently existing would still constitute knowledge, but as used it would seem to be in some sense faith).
According to this site I can not say that I know with certainty that I am male. I wonder what the confidence level is that I exist or that you exist. I have seen examples of saying that one can not be certain of the prime numbers or of 1+1=2. To me all these things are certainties, I know them even if in reproducing that knowledge to an outside observer I might err in doing so. This is what I mean by knowledge, if you can come up with a better way of explaining it in terms of this site where there is no certainty other then what I have explained then please do so.
You seem to be meaning two things by knowledge, depending on the context in which you use it. I would suggest that you might find it easier if you use the words ‘information’ or ‘evidence’ when talking about justifications for a level of confidence/faith. And only use ‘knowledge’ to signify whatever high degree of confidence you’ve decided to use as your cut-off point for hands-in-fire-get-burned, I’m-looking-at-the-computer-and-it’s-still-there levels of certainty.
It still seems to me that you’re going to end up with problems if you hold faith as being another word for confidence. Since even certainty (100% confidence) is still a degree of confidence – and also knowledge under such a definition. But scripture holds that knowledge isn’t faith – which is the same as saying if you hold that faith and confidence are synonymous – that knowledge isn’t a degree of confidence (even 100% confidence).
It seems to me to be a deeper problem than one of definitions.
You’re going to have problems if you say that faith just refers to the preceding 99.9 recurring % levels of confidence, too. You’ve said that it’s a general enough idea, in “Lectures on Faith”, to just be taken as a synonymous term with confidence. But even putting that problem aside, when you wanted to start talking about scripture again I suspect you’d end up saying either, ‘People don’t believe that which they know.’ Or, ‘People don’t believe that which they have faith in.’
But belief isn’t one of those fuzzy terms, like knowledge or faith. The meaning can’t be altered to fit a particular argument without doing significant damage to the network of references into which it fits. If I say I believe my computer is in front of me while I’m typing on it, (which going by your standards would also be knowledge,) then there’s no significant question what I mean. Just as it’s coherent for me to say that I believe my front door is locked, when strictly speaking I’ve heard one of the other occupants of the building come in and do not know if they locked the door. You might ask how strongly I believe it, but it’s coherent for me to answer that in degrees of doubt/confidence; even to the point of saying that I have no doubt.
If you start saying that belief means something else to patch the problem in the epistemology, then you’re going to have to explain how that new definition is coherent with all the other instances of its use. And that will alter more, even more well defined, meanings to do that which you’re going to have to redefine along with everything that hooks onto those instances… and so on until eventually you’ve defined everything in terms of whether it makes your theology right. It doesn’t seem to be a workable approach.
Better odds than the chance a similarly but non-testimony privileged observer has. Or to put it another way whether the faith adds any information. (With non-adding faith being meaningless.)
Take the coin-flip example:
If we were to say that somehow divine testimony could predict the outcome of a coin flip. (Not that I’m saying it can but if it could—or someone claimed it could.) You might get three groups – in separate rooms – and one group would commune with god and score down their predictions, and the other two groups would flip coins. And you’d see what the difference between the god group and one of the coin flipping groups was as compared to the difference between the two coin flipping groups. Do it a few hundred times to get the errors down to whatever you’d decided the noise level was and see whether the faith group was more reliable.
If at the end of all that you didn’t have a higher degree of confidence in the predictions of divinity than those of a coin flip, then – assuming that was all the evidence you had for god – you may as well use the coin flip to dictate your actions. The faith wouldn’t add any information, it wouldn’t hook onto the world you were experiencing.
You could do the same sort of thing with the more day to day predictions of prophets from the Church but you’d need to compare them against experts in whatever field the prediction was being made in since the real world provides more information than they’d have in the coin flip case. The advantage of the coin flip is that there are fewer confounding variables more than anything else.
I think you are right in this assessment.
??? - you lost me here. Why would I end up saying that people don’t believe that which they know? Why would I have to redefine belief?
Take the Word of Wisdom for instance the experts in the health fields are still not able to agree as to whether coffee, tea, and alcohol are good or bad for you in the long run. The LDS Church however has consistently said they were. If the revelations from God are correct then one would expect that those that follow the revelations would be healthier than similar populations, which is indeed the case. Is this the type of thing that you mean?
Alma 32:18 [I]f a man knoweth a thing he hath no cause to believe, for he knoweth it.
But if knowledge was just a belief with 100% confidence, then that you knew it would mean you had quite a few causes to believe it.
I suppose you could also end up saying that knowledge was uncaused belief but that seems even more problematic
I’m not surprised, risk profiles don’t tend to reduce to a substance being absolutely good or bad for you. It depends on your genetics and the interaction of various chemicals in the drink, not all of which have linear relationships with consumption.
So far as coffee goes, broadly speaking, the consensus among the experts—i.e. those publishing studies into the effects of coffee—seems to indicate that consumption beneath four cups a day has more health benefits than risks, unless you happen to have gastro intestinal problems or need iron supplements. Paper filters seem to reduce risks even further.
Tea seems to be okay as long as you don’t put milk with it or drink it while it’s incredibly hot. Or drink stupid amounts, of course.
Alcohol? Well one or two drinks seems to be linked to reduced mortality—at least in the UK. The French seem to do well with it, though it may just be because of their diets. Heavy consumption does seem to be very bad for you.
In principle, yeah. I don’t think the WoW is very strong evidence by itself because there are loads of other possible explanations for health variances, and depending on the rationale the range of likely guesses may not have been all that wide, and because, IIRC, it was originally hot drinks in general which was changed later on when it became untenable; but it’s the right sort of thing, yeah.
If LDS’s prophets consistently make better predictions than experts, then they’ve probably got access to some sort of privileged information to narrow their range of answers down. Either that or they’re just vastly more rational than the experts, but the odds of that are slim.
I always took it to mean that if one knows something one has no cause to doubt it.
Belief as defined at dictionary.com does work with saying that one does not believe something one knows, being if a statement has proof then one does not believe it (see # 2).
It seems to be using belief-in as opposed to belief-that. If not then you are right that my definition of knowledge doesn’t work.
It appears to have been clarified in July of 1833 when the revelation was given in February of 1833.
What is your confidence level that putting your hand into a campfire is will burn your hand?
edit As in I assumed you were intelligent enough to see everything you said and to assume that I was also intelligent enough to see such things.
Close enough to 100% that it makes no practical difference.
That doesn’t seem to leave you any better off though. Which, yes, I assumed you’d seen. If the level of confidence you wish to select is to be high—perhaps even very high—before faith becomes knowledge, then the level of proof you can offer without destroying faith will be almost equally high. Even if we go all the way out to 100% you’ve just taken on a greater burden of proof.
This isn’t some abstract thing. We should be able to sit you down in a room with a fair coin—or some other thing that can be relatively easily measured—and have you call it. See what statistic it approaches—how God does against blind chance. If knowledge is to be 70% confidence and god only calls it 69% of the time that 1% difference preserves your faith. The same for whatever level of confidence you select. The only way the objection offered in Alma makes any sort of sense is if there is no such difference with which to preserve faith.
If I were claiming to be psychic or something then maybe. You have pretty much the same opportunity to try this out using the given method as I do. However, what makes you think that God is willing to play such a game? He isn’t a genie or oracle that grants every random wish. I could be wrong but I doubt He would be care to be treated so lightly.
Um, I think you have the wrong idea on the type of confidence we are talking about. If we did such a coin toss experiment and the person trying to communicate with God got it right 69% of the time that would give a much greater than 69% estimate to the existence of said God. That is getting 69% of all coin tosses right over a very large subset of coin tosses should lead one to first check to make sure that the coin is a fair coin, then lead one to use a different coin even if it is, and then lead one to try and eliminate all other possible explanations, and if it is still 69% of the time right then one should a) believe fairly highly in however the person is getting that information and b) take that person gambling or have that person pick stocks for you (or figure out how to do it yourself) before publishing any results of the study.
Providing solid evidence is the only way to reach people who don’t believe things without evidence. Some sort of effort in that direction would be expected of someone benevolent towards these people who predicts that this belief would be valuable. That’s the way it seems to me at least.
So a prophecy of something happening in the world at large does not count as evidence if it comes true but predicting a coin toss does?
A prophecy counts as evidence of privileged information insofar as it generates accurate predictions. Generally it doesn’t, by itself, tell us much about the source of that privileged information, but the circumstances surrounding its creation might imply some intelligence worth updating on.
On the other hand, essentially all of the prophecies—regardless of their source—that I’m aware of are unfulfilled, unverifiable, vague or ambiguous enough to have no predictive value, or outright fraudulent. Now, I’ll be happy to update if the Rapture happens on May 21 as the billboards lining my commute keep insisting, but I’m not holding my breath.
Yeah, this.
To begin with the Rapture as understood by the evangelicals will never happen. Therefore, it will not happen on May 21. I seriously doubt saying that will increase anyone’s estimation of my religion.
I have provided specific examples of prophecy that have been fulfilled. I am also able to provide more if it is so desired.
I already know it doesn’t work for me. Perhaps I wasn’t taking it seriously enough – whatever that means.
You have a god that reveals his existence to guide his followers on matters of relatively minuscule importance but won’t reveal his existence to save someone’s immortal soul? He’s already playing the game. His values may be very different to our own but he’s playing. (Assuming of course he exists.)
I don’t think it’s treating him lightly either. Some kid tells you they’re a god you just smile and nod, some adult say it you ask them demonstrate some suitably implausible power. When you take something seriously you test it. Generally the more seriously you take something the more you test it – resources allowing – not less.
Treating him lightly would be dancing off to believe in some random god because I got the warm fuzzies when I went to a church/mosque/whatever, or because of what I read in some book.
It’s not like he’s being asked to do it as a parlour trick. It’s not random either – it’s for a purpose. Someone’s immortal soul may or may not be in jeopardy.
I think so too. Whatever calls would give you a 69% confidence then.
Ok, agreed.
I assume you mean there is a god?
Also agreed.
This is what I was assuming you were asking to have happen.
I am working on a longer response now that I have a better understanding of what it is you are requesting.
Second part
As to the most recent specific prophecies from the living prophet Thomas S. Monson so far I have come up with this:
The fall of Communism in Europe was what opened up those countries. It to me therefore seems that President Monson was prophesying the current unrest in the dictatorships throughout the world and that this will eventually allow for LDS missionaries to enter some of those countries. As the missionaries are not currently in any of the countries (nor is the unrest overwith) this is one that we should be able to watch develop.
Plus the prophecy that there will be more temples built. Further revelation given is such things as the calling of a new apostle, the calling of missionaries, and other adminstrative things which while important to the Church I doubt anyone outside of the Church cares (excluding some ex-mormons (along with some social mormons that don’t understand the doctrine) that are really upset over Prop. 8 and the reaffirming the Churches stance against homosexual behaviors, which they really should have known anyways).
I have previously listed some of the other prophecies that have come true as well as some other prophecies that to me seem very specific. I can try finding more but in the end it will almost always be possible to say that “my idol did it” or anyone could have known that or “Some things they may have guessed right, among so many; but behold, we know that all these great and marvelous works cannot come to pass, of which has been spoken” or other such things. I am very much of the opinion that signs, prophecies, and miracles will not and should not provide sufficient evidence to convince someone without they themselves asking God to know if it is true. They should, however, provide evidence enough to begin to act and to be willing to test things out.
I do know of another precedure that is empirical but it is asking a lot more of people. Also, I am not asking for donations to my church, as I explain:
Malachi 3:10: “Bring ye all the tithes into the storehouse … and prove me now herewith, saith the Lord of hosts, if I will not open you the windows of heaven, and pour you out a blessing, that there shall not be room enough to recieve it”. Here is what I am actually suggesting, find some organization or charity that you beleive to be good and give that organization 10% of your income (measured however you think is honest with yourself) track your expenditures, your income, and net worth over the course of a year and then at the end of the year of so doing evaluate your situation, see if God followed through on His promise. If you believe that SIAI is a good organization then donate to them. I don’t care who you donate it to as long as you believe it to be a good worthwhile cause, therefore if you don’t think my church is true then please don’t donate to it, as I doubt it will be effective if you do.
You should look at information gain when evaulating the strength of a prophecy. For instance, “closed countries will become open at some point in the future.” Assume this requires a major change in government, then look at the expected rate of major government change—I’m going to make a guess of a 2% chance per year. After 14 years (1976-1990), observing a government change major enough to open a country gives you around 2 bits of information.
That means this “prophecy” is approximately as impressive as prophecying correctly that a fair coin will come up heads twice.
Even if you read the prophecies with no bias whatsoever, if you’re charitable enough to forgive 3 failures for each 1 amazingly correct prediction, the prophet cannot lose.
Some of the nations were opened up before 1990. Further, this is not saying one country opened up but many. Perhaps you are not aware that in 1976 it appeared as though communism would last forever and saying not just one but that all of Soviet bloc would not be communist in 14 years was viewed as an impossibility.
Where are the failures?
I’m not familiar enough with the publications of the LDS church to list any. Reading the linked speech, “opening new areas” did seem to be the only thing one could fairly call a prediction. Perhaps there are no unfulfilled predictions in the historical records.
More likely, perhaps most prophecies had different possibilities for information gain; even that prophecy--1 major government change every 50 years was just a guess, although the single government change in the USSR was the proximate cause of each country’s opening.
But all I really meant to say is that a prophecy is not a boolean quantity, but a point on a continuum from correctly predicting “the sun will rise tomorrow” to correctly predicting “the sun will not rise tomorrow.” Before treating a prophecy as evidence for any particular properties of the prophet or the prophet’s sponsor, you should locate it on that continuum.
hmm.. looks like it will be multiple comments as it is too long.
Some of this I will have already covered in other responses, I hope it is okay if I cover it again.
I think the best place to begin is to explain what the purpose of life is and then go from there. That is, there are reasons God operates the way He does and they are directly related to why we are here on Earth. It will seem round about and I am sorry for that, I can’t think of a shorter way to answer that would communicate the necessary information.
First, Gods goal for us is “to bring to pass the immortality and eternal life of man”. That is we are here to gain a body (in case anyone is wondering, you have succeeded at that part) and to qualify to return to the presence of God which will allow us to become gods ourselves (Joint-Heirs with Christ). Therefore the goal is to have us obtain the same state of power and knowledge that God has and just as we do not wish to give god-like power to an AI that is then going to screw things up so too God does not wish to do the same to us.
Previous to this life we lived in the presence God being His sons and daughters and we knew, as we could see him, saw the power he had, and had sufficient understanding to know, that He was God and what was right. Even in this state of knowledge 1⁄3 of all of God’s children fell, they rebelled against God and were cast out into Hell (for simplicities sake I will use the term Hell, it isn’t entirely accurate to do so but the purpose isn’t to give you a complete understanding of all the details), forever. Those of us who get born on Earth did not fall but followed what was right when we knew for a surety that it was right.
Due to the fact that we did not fall we receive bodies and even after we die will again receive our bodies to no more part from them in the resurrection. This is what is meant by immortality and it is a free gift to all.
As to eternal life it is up to us on earth to live according to what we know to be right. Not what we wish was right but what we actually know to be right. This is primarily what we will be judged on. However, with the exception of Christ no one has perfectly lived according to what they know the right things to do are. We all fail and we all know that we fail, many when they so fail try to redefine what is right so that it appears to them that they have not failed but God knows their hearts and they can not fool him, or in the end themselves. Due to this state of failure, or sin, to follow what we know to be right we become unworthy of entering back into the presence of God.
This is where Christ comes in, He is our savior and able to wipe away our sins such that we can again be clean. For this to happen requires one to be baptized in the correct manner by the correct authority. After baptism one receives the companionship of the Holy Spirit to assist in making correct decisions, however one is still mortal and fallen and thus will still err regularly and so must regularly repent and renew the covenants made to obtain forgiveness again.
To obtain eternal life one must accept baptism while still alive, or at the first available opportunity when dead. That is, it does matter when one is baptized if one has heard the gospel sufficiently to have a high degree of confidence in its validity while still alive, if not then after death is fine. Refusing to hear more with the sole purpose so as to not have a that high degree of confidence (and thus not be required to change ones behaviors) is an action that demonstrates a sufficient degree of confidence for the penalty to apply
. After baptism following the commandments is required to maintain the state of grace. Everyone will have a chance to be baptized (and the other saving ordinances) whether in life or after death, this is what most of the work in the temples is.
In the final state we can end up in a variety of places, if we obtain a perfect knowledge and then reject everything then we end up cast out with those that rebelled at the beginning. Contrary to popular opinion, this is a state that will eventually be available to everyone to choose as we will all be brought back into a state of perfect knowledge and thus will again have the opportunity to reject it. If we never even tried to do what we knew to be right but accepted and reveled in our sins then we end up in the Telestial Kingdom, which is comparable to life on Earth but perfected so as to be a heaven. If we attempted to do what was right but for a variety of reasons did not accept baptism when we had the chance then we will end up in Terrestrial Kingdom, which is pretty much what is described when people are commonly describing the christian view of heaven (being no family units but a state of great happiness). The Celestial Kingdom is where God dwells and those that obtain it have eternal life, those that obtain it and are in a married family unit obtain the state of godhood called exaltation.
From all of this it should be clear that your immortal soul, while at stake, is not in any particular danger from God not revealing Himself to you. If you are trying to do what you know to be right then you have lost nothing. If you aren’t trying to do what you know to be right then revealing himself to you could very well get you cast out, which is not what God is in the business of doing. He has provided sufficient evidence to suggest His existence while not casting out those that choose to not believe in the evidence provided. More evidence will be provided in the future as things get worse in the world, but until near the end it will continue to be such that many honest people that are trying to do what is right will not have to know the truth.
Warm fuzzies may or may not be a manifestation of the Spirit. It is often described as a still small voice or a burning sensation within (not a bad burning sensation, that is probably heart burn or something). It should be in both your mind and in your heart, being thoughts and feelings. This is the primary way with which God communicates with us as it testifies of the truth and lets us know what is right. It is also easily drowned out by other emotions and feelings and easily confused with other things (uncontrollable crying, a sense of community, trances, babelling incoherently, a sense of confusion are common things mistaken for the spirit) . There are a variety of other means of communication but all of them should be accompanied by this feeling of the Spirit (angels, visions, burning bush, talking donkey, dreams are some examples from the Bible of other means of communication (if I ever have a donkey or pretty much any other animal talk to me my first reaction will be to assume I had eaten something really bad or that I was crazy and either way need to seek medical attention, but it is there))
So why has he revealed himself even at a low level of confidence? People supposedly already know right from wrong so that’s not it.
If his revealing himself helps people to do right rather than wrong more than it imperils them, then in his not revealing himself to me I have lost something. (It’s less probable that I will do right and thus I have been imperilled.) If he helps at a particular level of confidence less than he imperils then it doesn’t make sense for him to reveal himself to anyone. If they’re equal then there’s no purpose in it.
Assorted thoughts on the rest:
Eh, there’s a tension between power and justification. If you take it to the extreme, omnipotence and reason are mutually exclusive criteria. (Outside, perhaps, of an inability to commit logical contradictions, but that doesn’t really seem to be involved here.)
I’d be more than happy to give symmetrical power to an AI, assuming I had godly powers. The whole issue is that a recursively improving AI might become far more powerful than ourselves.
Why do we need to qualify to return if we followed him and didn’t fall?
Above you said we were here to gain a body and to qualify to return to the presence of God. However, if we become unworthy of returning to God that removes a lot of the reason for being here. Why not be embodied and immediately die? The purpose of life then having been completed.
You’ve already said knowledge is an incredibly high degree of confidence – indeed you’ve said that it’s practically indistinguishable from certainty—which you’ve in turn tied to proof. I’ve seen no proof of right and wrong. A feeling certainly isn’t proof; asides from anything else I’ve felt different ways about ethical issues at different points in time. Then you have the cultural variances in preferences and emotions....
Again you’ve tied knowledge to being a high degree of confidence. If it’s easily confused with other things then it doesn’t provide that high degree of confidence. It also has the same problems as communication in general concerning its purpose. If the value of the guidance of testimony is exceeded by the peril of knowing more then it shouldn’t be done. If the inverse holds then it should be done for everyone. If they’re equal then there’s no purpose in it one way or the other.
Did you not understand that the peril of knowledge is only if one does not follow what one knows? Knowledge is not something to be feared but to be sought after and this is true of all knowledge. Of course with knowledge comes responsibility to use that knowledge well and this is again true of all types of knowledge.
I actually had a discussion on Less Wrong already that covered this. The only purpose of life is not just to gain a body but also to see if we would choose to follow what is right. I do not know what the state of those that die before they are able to make such choices is except that they are saved and exalted. I see I did not explain that this life is for testing to see what we will do without the constant certainty we had before.
This is a personal thing, if Him revealing Himself to you helps you to do right rather than wrong more than it imperils you then in His not revealing Himself to you, you would have lost something. The only way it would hurt more than help is if you were to listen and to not follow, just as the only way it would help more than hurt is if you were to listen and to follow.
Would you then be willing to entrust that AI with control of some world populated with billions of people?
We would need to precisely define omnipotence as it is often understood to be an nonsensical concept. Also, the type of omnipotence that God actually has (as understood by me, a Latter-Day Saint) is nothing like what other Christians claim He has.
There are more restrictions then just an inability to commit logical contradictions. If I have said something contradictory then please point it out so I can see if that is what I actually meant and if it is, if that is actually what the doctrine is.
This goes back to why God reveals Himself, so that we can find out what is actually right. If you are doing what is right to the best of your understanding and knowledge as it currently is then that is fine. If with a greater understanding things you thought were right turn out to have been wrong then you are not accountable for doing what was wrong if you actually thought it was right. The ability to judge what is right and wrong is given to everyone.