I think “what feels plausible is not probable” is slightly better, since it shows the map-territory distinction—”plausible” and “probable” both sound like words that describe the territory.
Sure; in practice these soundbites are a reaction to someone saying “plausible” (and now “convincing”) and they usually respond with some form of “what?”. Which lets me do the fifteen-second explanation of the representativeness heuristic: “I’m gonna flip a coin a bunch of times. Which is more plausible, heads heads tails heads tails tails heads, or tails tails tails tails tails? One option makes you four times as much money as the other.” If they show interest then I do my best to limit myself to a few minutes.
“Plausible is the opposite of probable” is the soundbite I use.
This is particularly difficult as I have highly tuned my brain to plausibility, like more than most people. Hence the usefulness of a handy soundbite somewhat hooked into the plausibility detector.
I want trip-wires and landmines in my brain so that whenever I semi-consciously judge something as plausible, reasonable, ‘a soldier on my side’, ‘a soldier on the enemy’s side’, etc alarms and explosions go off and stop me from making such judgments. The closest I can find to such tools is soundbites like these that are trained up as automatic responses to such judgments.
Yes. And the problem is the well-known cognitive bias that plausibility goes up as probability goes down.
Plausible is not probable! Convincing is not correct! Useful little soundbites.
I think “what feels plausible is not probable” is slightly better, since it shows the map-territory distinction—”plausible” and “probable” both sound like words that describe the territory.
Sure; in practice these soundbites are a reaction to someone saying “plausible” (and now “convincing”) and they usually respond with some form of “what?”. Which lets me do the fifteen-second explanation of the representativeness heuristic: “I’m gonna flip a coin a bunch of times. Which is more plausible, heads heads tails heads tails tails heads, or tails tails tails tails tails? One option makes you four times as much money as the other.” If they show interest then I do my best to limit myself to a few minutes.
“Plausible is the opposite of probable” is the soundbite I use.
This is particularly difficult as I have highly tuned my brain to plausibility, like more than most people. Hence the usefulness of a handy soundbite somewhat hooked into the plausibility detector.
I want trip-wires and landmines in my brain so that whenever I semi-consciously judge something as plausible, reasonable, ‘a soldier on my side’, ‘a soldier on the enemy’s side’, etc alarms and explosions go off and stop me from making such judgments. The closest I can find to such tools is soundbites like these that are trained up as automatic responses to such judgments.
Reversed stupidity is not intelligence.