Note that most of these are exactly the kind of made up numbers I was talking about in my previous comment. You can’t start with guesses that show a variance within the first decimal figure and end up with an estimate with a supposed three or four significant figures.
I don’t see much value in these kind of calculations other than the simple realization that cryonics succes is an higly conjunctive event, the more failure modes you consider, the lower the probabilty of succes. Thus, the actual probability is going to be quite low.
Unless someone provides a compelling argument that the probability of success of cryonics is non-negligible, the default position is to reject it. Compare it to other non-evidence-based “medical” procedures such as homeopathy of prayer-based healing.
Compare it to other non-evidence-based “medical” procedures such as homeopathy of prayer-based healing.
Okay—I pay some attention to the skeptical community, such as the podcasts “The Skeptic’s Guide to the Universe” and “Skeptoid”. The two items you mention not only have no significant evidence for their efficacy, they have significant quantities of evidence against it, plus additional, even stronger, evidence against their claimed methods of operation. Thus, there is plenty of evidence to tot up, dragging the amount of confidence that anyone should have in those procedures to be in the minus dozens of decibans—say, −70 or below.
The most pessimistic estimate given on that page for successful cryonic revival is around 1/1000, or −30 decibans.
That’s a minimum difference in confidence of 40 decibans—the equivalent of changing your mind from a 50⁄50 chance to 99.99% certainty. Or from 99.99% certainty of falsehood to a 50⁄50 chance. Or, put another way, at least two completely independent studies each with a p-value of 0.01 or better.
My conclusion: there’s very little comparison between cryonics and pseudoscience.
Note that most of these are exactly the kind of made up numbers I was talking about in my previous comment. You can’t start with guesses that show a variance within the first decimal figure and end up with an estimate with a supposed three or four significant figures.
I don’t see much value in these kind of calculations other than the simple realization that cryonics succes is an higly conjunctive event, the more failure modes you consider, the lower the probabilty of succes. Thus, the actual probability is going to be quite low.
Unless someone provides a compelling argument that the probability of success of cryonics is non-negligible, the default position is to reject it. Compare it to other non-evidence-based “medical” procedures such as homeopathy of prayer-based healing.
Okay—I pay some attention to the skeptical community, such as the podcasts “The Skeptic’s Guide to the Universe” and “Skeptoid”. The two items you mention not only have no significant evidence for their efficacy, they have significant quantities of evidence against it, plus additional, even stronger, evidence against their claimed methods of operation. Thus, there is plenty of evidence to tot up, dragging the amount of confidence that anyone should have in those procedures to be in the minus dozens of decibans—say, −70 or below.
The most pessimistic estimate given on that page for successful cryonic revival is around 1/1000, or −30 decibans.
That’s a minimum difference in confidence of 40 decibans—the equivalent of changing your mind from a 50⁄50 chance to 99.99% certainty. Or from 99.99% certainty of falsehood to a 50⁄50 chance. Or, put another way, at least two completely independent studies each with a p-value of 0.01 or better.
My conclusion: there’s very little comparison between cryonics and pseudoscience.