This, along with your other estimate of 10^(-9), implies that your probability for Eliezer being able to eventually attract and work well with collaborators is currently 1/1000. Does that really seem reasonable to you (would you be willing to bet at those odds?)
Thinking it over, my estimate of 10^(-6) was way too high. This isn’t because of a lack of faith in Eliezer’s abilities in particular. I would recur to my above remark that I think that everybody has very small probability of succeeding in efforts to eliminate existential risk. We’re part of a complicated chaotic dynamical system and to a large degree our cumulative impact on the world is unintelligible and unexpected (because of a complicated network of unintended consequences, side effects, side effects of the side effects, etc.).
Your responses to me seem pretty level headed and sober. I hope that means you don’t find my comments too hostile.
Thinking it over, my estimate of 10^(-6) was way too high. This isn’t because of a lack of faith in Eliezer’s abilities in particular. I would recur to my above remark that I think that everybody has very small probability of succeeding in efforts to eliminate existential risk. We’re part of a complicated chaotic dynamical system and to a large degree our cumulative impact on the world is unintelligible and unexpected (because of a complicated network of unintended consequences, side effects, side effects of the side effects, etc.).
Glad to hear it :-)