I don’t think that’s the right way to escape from a Pascal’s mugging. In the case of the SIAI, there isn’t really clear evidence that the organisation is having any positive effect—let alone SAVING THE WORLD. When the benefit could plausibly be small, zero—or indeed negative—one does not need to invoke teeny tiny probabalities to offset it.
P(SIAI will be successful) may be smaller that 10^-(3^^^^3)!
I don’t think that’s the right way to escape from a Pascal’s mugging. In the case of the SIAI, there isn’t really clear evidence that the organisation is having any positive effect—let alone SAVING THE WORLD. When the benefit could plausibly be small, zero—or indeed negative—one does not need to invoke teeny tiny probabalities to offset it.