I understand your position and believe that it’s fundamentally unsound. I will have more to say about this later.
For now I’ll just say that the arithmetical average of the probabilities that I imagine I might ascribe to Eliezer’s current strategy resulting in an FAI to be 10^(-9).
It sounds, then, like you’re averaging probabilities geometrically rather than arithmetically. This is bad!
I understand your position and believe that it’s fundamentally unsound. I will have more to say about this later.
For now I’ll just say that the arithmetical average of the probabilities that I imagine I might ascribe to Eliezer’s current strategy resulting in an FAI to be 10^(-9).