Your analysis is basically correct, i.e. I think it is overconfident to say that the probability P(B) is greater than P(R) by more than a certain factor, in particular because if you make it much greater, there is basically no way for you to be well calibrated in your opinions—because you are just as human as the people who believe those things. More on that later.
For now, I would like to see your response to question on my comment to komponisto (i.e. how many 1′s do you wait for.)
Your analysis is basically correct, i.e. I think it is overconfident to say that the probability P(B) is greater than P(R) by more than a certain factor, in particular because if you make it much greater, there is basically no way for you to be well calibrated in your opinions—because you are just as human as the people who believe those things. More on that later.
For now, I would like to see your response to question on my comment to komponisto (i.e. how many 1′s do you wait for.)