I indeed am motivated by reasons you gave, so lotteries aren’t concern for this heuristics, since the probability is known. In fact, I have never thought about lotteries this way, probably because I know the probabilities. The value estimate is a bit less sure (to resonably buy a lottery, it would also need a convex utility curve, which I probably haven’t), but the lotteries deal with money, which make pretty good first approximation for value. Insurances are more or less similar, and not all of them include probabilities too low or values too high to fall into the Pascal-wager category.
Actually, I do buy some most common insurances, although I avoid buying insurances against improbable risks (meteorite fall etc.). I don’t buy lotteries.
The more interesting aspect of your question is the status-quo conserving potential inconsistency you have pointed out. I would probably consider real Pascal-wagerish assets to be of no value and sell them if I needed the money. This isn’t exactly consistent with the “do nothing” strategy I have outlined, so I have to think about it a while to find out whether the potential inconsistencies are not too horrible.
I indeed am motivated by reasons you gave, so lotteries aren’t concern for this heuristics, since the probability is known. In fact, I have never thought about lotteries this way, probably because I know the probabilities. The value estimate is a bit less sure (to resonably buy a lottery, it would also need a convex utility curve, which I probably haven’t), but the lotteries deal with money, which make pretty good first approximation for value. Insurances are more or less similar, and not all of them include probabilities too low or values too high to fall into the Pascal-wager category.
Actually, I do buy some most common insurances, although I avoid buying insurances against improbable risks (meteorite fall etc.). I don’t buy lotteries.
The more interesting aspect of your question is the status-quo conserving potential inconsistency you have pointed out. I would probably consider real Pascal-wagerish assets to be of no value and sell them if I needed the money. This isn’t exactly consistent with the “do nothing” strategy I have outlined, so I have to think about it a while to find out whether the potential inconsistencies are not too horrible.