You’ve (probably) refuted the original statement as an absolute.
You’re deciding not to engage the issue of hubris directly.
Does the following paraphrase your position:
Here’s what I (and also part of SIAI) intend to work on
I think it’s very important (and you should think so for reasons outline in my writings)
If you agree with me, you should support us
? If so, I think it’s fine for you to not say the obvious (that you’re being quite ambitious, and that success is not assured). It seems like some people are really dying to hear you say the obvious.
That’s interesting. I downvoted it for being clever. It was a convoluted elaboration of a trivial technicality that only applies if you make the most convenient (for Eliezer) interpretation of multi’s words. This kind of response may win someone a debating contest in high school but it certainly isn’t what I would expect from someone well versed in the rationalism sequences, much less their author.
I don’t pay all that much attention to what multi says (no offence intended to multi) but I pay close attention to what Eliezer does. I am overwhelmingly convinced of Eliezer’s cleverness and brilliance as a rationalism theorist. Everything else, well, that’s a lot more blurry.
I don’t think Eliezer was trying to be clever. He replied to the only real justification multi offered for why we should believe that Eliezer is suffering from delusions of grandeur. What else is he supposed to do?
I got your reply and respect your position. I don’t want to engage too much here since it would overlap with discussion surrounding Eliezer’s initial reply and potentially be quite frustrating.
What I would like to see is multifoliaterose giving a considered response to the “If not, why not?” question in that link. That would give Eliezer the chance to respond to the meat of the topic at hand. Eliezer has been given a rare opportunity. He can always write posts about himself, giving justifications for whatever degree of personal awesomeness he claims. That’s nothing new. But in this situation it wouldn’t be perceived as Eliezer grabbing the megaphone for his own self-gratification. He is responding to a challenge, answering a request.
Why would you waste the chance to, say, explain the difference between “SIAI” and “Eliezer Yudkowsky”? Or at least give some treatment of p(someone other than Eliezer Yudkowsky is doing the most to save the world). Better yet, take that chance to emphasise the difference between p(FAI is the most important priority for humanity) and p(Eliezer is the most important human in the world).
As Graehl and wedrifid observed, Eliezer responded as if the original statement were an absolute. He applied deductive reasoning and found a reductio ad absurdum. But if, instead of an absolute, you see multifoliaterose’s characterization as a reference class: “People who believe themselves to be one of the few most important in the world without having already done something visible and obvious to dramatically change it,” it can lower the probability that Eliezer is, in fact, that important by a large likelihood ratio.
Whether this likelihood ratio is large enough to overcome the evidence on AI-related existential risk and the paucity of serious effort dedicated to combating it is an open question.
Success is not assured. I’m not sure what’s meant by confessing to being “ambitious”. Is it like being “optimistic”? I suppose there are people who can say “I’m being optimistic” without being aware that they are instantiating Moore’s Paradox but I am not one of them.
I also disclaim that I do not believe myself to be the protagonist, because the world is not a story, and does not have a plot.
I hope that the double negative in the last sentence was an error.
I introduced the term “protagonist”, because at that point we were discussing a hypothetical person who was being judged regarding his belief in a set of three propositions. Everyone recognized, of course, who that hypothetical person represented, but the actual person had not yet stipulated his belief in that set of propositions.
I hope that the double negative in the last sentence was an error.
Interesting. I don’t claim great grammatical expertise but my reading puts the last question at reasonable. Am I correct in inferring that you do not believe Eliezer’s usage of “I also disclaim” to mean “I include the following disclaimer: ” is valid?
Regarding ‘protagonist’ there is some context for the kind of point Eliezer likes to make about protagonist/story thinking in his Harry Potter fanfic. I don’t believe he has expressed the concept coherently as a post yet. (I don’t see where you introduced the ‘protagonist’ word so don’t know whether Eliezer read you right. I’m just throwing some background in.)
Am I correct in inferring that you do not believe Eliezer’s usage of “I also disclaim” to mean “I include the following disclaimer: ” is valid?
This question is best solved by a dictionary. “I disclaim that I am a blegg” means that I am not a blegg; “Disclaimer: I am a blegg” means that I am a blegg. The use of disclaimer in the second statement is describing the following statement: “I am making a claim that denies something: I am a blegg.”
Take home message: Eliezer’s double negative means his post has the opposite effect of what I hope he intended.
Yes, that was exactly the sense of “ambitious” I intended—the second person sneering one, which when used by oneself, would be more about signaling humility than truth. I see that’s not your style.
Upvoted for being clever.
You’ve (probably) refuted the original statement as an absolute.
You’re deciding not to engage the issue of hubris directly.
Does the following paraphrase your position:
Here’s what I (and also part of SIAI) intend to work on
I think it’s very important (and you should think so for reasons outline in my writings)
If you agree with me, you should support us
? If so, I think it’s fine for you to not say the obvious (that you’re being quite ambitious, and that success is not assured). It seems like some people are really dying to hear you say the obvious.
That’s interesting. I downvoted it for being clever. It was a convoluted elaboration of a trivial technicality that only applies if you make the most convenient (for Eliezer) interpretation of multi’s words. This kind of response may win someone a debating contest in high school but it certainly isn’t what I would expect from someone well versed in the rationalism sequences, much less their author.
I don’t pay all that much attention to what multi says (no offence intended to multi) but I pay close attention to what Eliezer does. I am overwhelmingly convinced of Eliezer’s cleverness and brilliance as a rationalism theorist. Everything else, well, that’s a lot more blurry.
I don’t think Eliezer was trying to be clever. He replied to the only real justification multi offered for why we should believe that Eliezer is suffering from delusions of grandeur. What else is he supposed to do?
I got your reply and respect your position. I don’t want to engage too much here since it would overlap with discussion surrounding Eliezer’s initial reply and potentially be quite frustrating.
What I would like to see is multifoliaterose giving a considered response to the “If not, why not?” question in that link. That would give Eliezer the chance to respond to the meat of the topic at hand. Eliezer has been given a rare opportunity. He can always write posts about himself, giving justifications for whatever degree of personal awesomeness he claims. That’s nothing new. But in this situation it wouldn’t be perceived as Eliezer grabbing the megaphone for his own self-gratification. He is responding to a challenge, answering a request.
Why would you waste the chance to, say, explain the difference between “SIAI” and “Eliezer Yudkowsky”? Or at least give some treatment of p(someone other than Eliezer Yudkowsky is doing the most to save the world). Better yet, take that chance to emphasise the difference between p(FAI is the most important priority for humanity) and p(Eliezer is the most important human in the world).
As Graehl and wedrifid observed, Eliezer responded as if the original statement were an absolute. He applied deductive reasoning and found a reductio ad absurdum. But if, instead of an absolute, you see multifoliaterose’s characterization as a reference class: “People who believe themselves to be one of the few most important in the world without having already done something visible and obvious to dramatically change it,” it can lower the probability that Eliezer is, in fact, that important by a large likelihood ratio.
Whether this likelihood ratio is large enough to overcome the evidence on AI-related existential risk and the paucity of serious effort dedicated to combating it is an open question.
Success is not assured. I’m not sure what’s meant by confessing to being “ambitious”. Is it like being “optimistic”? I suppose there are people who can say “I’m being optimistic” without being aware that they are instantiating Moore’s Paradox but I am not one of them.
I also disclaim that I do not believe myself to be the protagonist, because the world is not a story, and does not have a plot.
I hope that the double negative in the last sentence was an error.
I introduced the term “protagonist”, because at that point we were discussing a hypothetical person who was being judged regarding his belief in a set of three propositions. Everyone recognized, of course, who that hypothetical person represented, but the actual person had not yet stipulated his belief in that set of propositions.
Interesting. I don’t claim great grammatical expertise but my reading puts the last question at reasonable. Am I correct in inferring that you do not believe Eliezer’s usage of “I also disclaim” to mean “I include the following disclaimer: ” is valid?
Regarding ‘protagonist’ there is some context for the kind of point Eliezer likes to make about protagonist/story thinking in his Harry Potter fanfic. I don’t believe he has expressed the concept coherently as a post yet. (I don’t see where you introduced the ‘protagonist’ word so don’t know whether Eliezer read you right. I’m just throwing some background in.)
Regarding “disclaim”.
I read “disclaim” as a synonym for “deny”. I didn’t even consider your interpretation, but upon consideration, I think I prefer it.
My mistake (again!). :(
This question is best solved by a dictionary. “I disclaim that I am a blegg” means that I am not a blegg; “Disclaimer: I am a blegg” means that I am a blegg. The use of disclaimer in the second statement is describing the following statement: “I am making a claim that denies something: I am a blegg.”
Take home message: Eliezer’s double negative means his post has the opposite effect of what I hope he intended.
Yes, that was exactly the sense of “ambitious” I intended—the second person sneering one, which when used by oneself, would be more about signaling humility than truth. I see that’s not your style.