P(Someone faked the burglary) != P(Amanda Knox faked the burglary). The report asserts the first, not the second, from my reading.
Given that “someone faked” is true, I think assigning an approximately 100% chance that Amanda Knox is guilty is rather seriously unfounded. What am I missing?
That “burglary was faked” is shorthand for “burglary was faked by Knox and Sollecito” throughout this post and discussion. The latter is what Massei and Cristiani argue, and is what would most strongly imply that Knox and Sollecito are guilty of murder.
The evidence you quoted merely suggests the burglary was faked. I’d assume there are more people with a motive to do that than just Knox and Sollecito? Why would we assume, with high enough certainty to convict, that it was certainly them and not a roommate, or someone who knew them?
Look, I’m not saying Massei and Cristiani’s argument that Knox and Sollecito staged the burglary is convincing, by any means!
That said, their argument that if the burglary was staged, the staging was done by Knox and Sollecito is probably the most convincing part of it. At the very least, they would have a highish prior, since they had access to the house and were “available” that night to do the staging if they wanted to.
I figured this out but it threw me when I got to this part of the post. I’m not sure the convenience of the shorthand justifies throwing your readers off.
P(Someone faked the burglary) != P(Amanda Knox faked the burglary). The report asserts the first, not the second, from my reading.
Given that “someone faked” is true, I think assigning an approximately 100% chance that Amanda Knox is guilty is rather seriously unfounded. What am I missing?
That “burglary was faked” is shorthand for “burglary was faked by Knox and Sollecito” throughout this post and discussion. The latter is what Massei and Cristiani argue, and is what would most strongly imply that Knox and Sollecito are guilty of murder.
The evidence you quoted merely suggests the burglary was faked. I’d assume there are more people with a motive to do that than just Knox and Sollecito? Why would we assume, with high enough certainty to convict, that it was certainly them and not a roommate, or someone who knew them?
Look, I’m not saying Massei and Cristiani’s argument that Knox and Sollecito staged the burglary is convincing, by any means!
That said, their argument that if the burglary was staged, the staging was done by Knox and Sollecito is probably the most convincing part of it. At the very least, they would have a highish prior, since they had access to the house and were “available” that night to do the staging if they wanted to.
I figured this out but it threw me when I got to this part of the post. I’m not sure the convenience of the shorthand justifies throwing your readers off.