Pretty much, I think.
If the prior P(guilty) is 1:1000000 and P(guilty|staged) is really high, a consistent prior requires that P(staged) is around 1:1000000 as well. Therefore 1000:1 evidence isn’t enough.
Current theme: default
Less Wrong (text)
Less Wrong (link)
Pretty much, I think.
If the prior P(guilty) is 1:1000000 and P(guilty|staged) is really high, a consistent prior requires that P(staged) is around 1:1000000 as well. Therefore 1000:1 evidence isn’t enough.