[Popcorn vendors] are worse off, except for the part where they now have some extra green slips of paper.
That’s a weird way to say that they’re better off.
In this case, past you is worse off, and the current world is better off.
Suppose that paulfchristiano invests $1000 into my company. Suppose that I then spend it all on popcorn. And suppose I later return him $1001. Is the world better off? Surely, this case is exactly like the case where I buy popcorn myself, except that I am now $1 worse off. Who knows, maybe I worked extra hard to earn that $1? Is that where the new value comes from?
My point is that investment is not inherently good. The way investment creates value is by enabling useful consumption. It’s possible that other people know how to use money better than me, but that’s not necessarily true.
That’s a weird way to say that they’re better off.
Suppose that paulfchristiano invests $1000 into my company. Suppose that I then spend it all on popcorn. And suppose I later return him $1001. Is the world better off? Surely, this case is exactly like the case where I buy popcorn myself, except that I am now $1 worse off. Who knows, maybe I worked extra hard to earn that $1? Is that where the new value comes from?
My point is that investment is not inherently good. The way investment creates value is by enabling useful consumption. It’s possible that other people know how to use money better than me, but that’s not necessarily true.
Do you also mean to be saying that it’s not good on average, in expectation. Or just that it’s not always, necessarily good?
The latter. We can have high confidence that investment is good on average. And so is consumption.