To whatever extent you’re in doubt about the future existence of big effective-charity opportunities and the ability of future EAs to find them, you should be skeptical about long-term investment for the sake of EA donation.
This may be a strong reason to give sooner rather than later; if you expect the state of the world’s most-in-need people to improve drastically over (say) the next 50 years, as it seems like they have over the last 50 years, then a given sum 50 years from now may do them a lot less good than it would now—perhaps enough to make up for the expected growth if you invest the money now.
How big a deal this is is likely to depend on what sort of thing you consider most effective. E.g., if you’re concerned about global poverty and expect existing efforts to improve that a lot over 50 years, probably better to give sooner; if you’re concerned about AI safety and expect it to be 100 years before there’s anything to worry about, maybe invest (or maybe not—you might decide that early foundational work is super-important); etc.
But if what you’re contemplating is investment just for the sake of putting more money into businesses, because business growth is good, then I think most people wouldn’t see that as a variety of EA (though they might be wrong not to) and my guess is that most people thinking about “long-term investments to help the future” have in mind an invest-now-to-give-later model rather than an invest-now-for-the-sake-of-investment model. E.g., Robin Hanson’s blog post that you link to is all about whether the most effective way to address global warming is to invest now in order to use the proceeds to fight global warming later.
So, I think I might have been anchoring too much on Robin’s original post where he says “Usually the best way to help far future folk is to invest now to give them resources they can spend as they wish”, suggesting that it doesn’t matter too much how you spend the money at the end. So in this post I was trying to explore the possibility of an investment-for-the-sake-of-business-growth model, but maybe that was the wrong thing to focus on. Maybe I’ll have to study the investment-to-give-later model in more detail and see what I think of it.
OK, but what about the following argument: Even if effective-charity opportunities decline over time, maybe we can expect that the minimal value of doing something stupid with our money will stay roughly constant. So that the graph of good done relative to time horizon of investment may be V-shaped: decreasing as the effective-charity opportunities go away at first, but then increasing again once they are all gone and so that the effect of declining opportunities doesn’t matter anymore. Maybe if we wait long enough then the right end of the V will be higher than the left end?
To whatever extent you’re in doubt about the future existence of big effective-charity opportunities and the ability of future EAs to find them, you should be skeptical about long-term investment for the sake of EA donation.
This may be a strong reason to give sooner rather than later; if you expect the state of the world’s most-in-need people to improve drastically over (say) the next 50 years, as it seems like they have over the last 50 years, then a given sum 50 years from now may do them a lot less good than it would now—perhaps enough to make up for the expected growth if you invest the money now.
How big a deal this is is likely to depend on what sort of thing you consider most effective. E.g., if you’re concerned about global poverty and expect existing efforts to improve that a lot over 50 years, probably better to give sooner; if you’re concerned about AI safety and expect it to be 100 years before there’s anything to worry about, maybe invest (or maybe not—you might decide that early foundational work is super-important); etc.
But if what you’re contemplating is investment just for the sake of putting more money into businesses, because business growth is good, then I think most people wouldn’t see that as a variety of EA (though they might be wrong not to) and my guess is that most people thinking about “long-term investments to help the future” have in mind an invest-now-to-give-later model rather than an invest-now-for-the-sake-of-investment model. E.g., Robin Hanson’s blog post that you link to is all about whether the most effective way to address global warming is to invest now in order to use the proceeds to fight global warming later.
So, I think I might have been anchoring too much on Robin’s original post where he says “Usually the best way to help far future folk is to invest now to give them resources they can spend as they wish”, suggesting that it doesn’t matter too much how you spend the money at the end. So in this post I was trying to explore the possibility of an investment-for-the-sake-of-business-growth model, but maybe that was the wrong thing to focus on. Maybe I’ll have to study the investment-to-give-later model in more detail and see what I think of it.
OK, but what about the following argument: Even if effective-charity opportunities decline over time, maybe we can expect that the minimal value of doing something stupid with our money will stay roughly constant. So that the graph of good done relative to time horizon of investment may be V-shaped: decreasing as the effective-charity opportunities go away at first, but then increasing again once they are all gone and so that the effect of declining opportunities doesn’t matter anymore. Maybe if we wait long enough then the right end of the V will be higher than the left end?