One can’t both think something is likely and think the evidence is weak and circumstantial!
One definitely can. What else is one supposed to do when evidence is weak and circumstantial? Assign probabilities that sum to less than one?
If the evidence for a particular claim is weak and circumstantial one should assign that claim a low probability and other, competing, possibilities higher probabilities.
What if the evidence for those is also weak and circumstantial?
Or what if one had assigned that claim a very high prior probability?
One definitely can. What else is one supposed to do when evidence is weak and circumstantial? Assign probabilities that sum to less than one?
If the evidence for a particular claim is weak and circumstantial one should assign that claim a low probability and other, competing, possibilities higher probabilities.
What if the evidence for those is also weak and circumstantial?
Or what if one had assigned that claim a very high prior probability?